Pashinyan on Possible Escalations and Armenian-Azerbaijani Relations

The official propaganda of the Republic of Azerbaijan is increasingly focusing on the thesis that Armenia is arming itself and preparing to attack Azerbaijan, and therefore Azerbaijan has the right to defend itself and take preventive measures. This was stated by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in an article published by “ARMENPRESS.”

“To summarize Azerbaijan's propaganda theses in a more concise manner, it comes down to this: Armenia is preparing to attack Azerbaijan, so it is better for Azerbaijan to attack Armenia as a preventive measure. There are two possible origins for these propaganda theses: either Azerbaijan genuinely believes that Armenia intends to attack it, or it itself has the intention to attack and is trying to create grounds for that. In both cases, the fundamental premise is Azerbaijan's claim of Armenia's intention to attack.”

“Is Armenia preparing to attack Azerbaijan? Any impartial observer can attest that the Government of the Republic of Armenia has left no room for misinterpretation on this matter. I have stated many times, and I find it necessary to clarify again, that the Republic of Armenia is committed to the strategic agreement reached in Prague on October 6, 2022, whereby Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other's territorial integrity and sovereignty based on the Alma-Ata Declaration. This means that the Republic of Armenia recognizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Azerbaijan over the territory of the Azerbaijan SSR, while the Republic of Azerbaijan recognizes the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Republic of Armenia over the territory of the Armenian SSR.”

This thesis has already gained de jure force in both states, as the Alma-Ata Declaration has been recorded as the fundamental principle of the delimitation process between the two countries in the regulations related to the activities of the joint commission on delimitation of the state borders between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, which has been ratified in both states. It is also with consideration of this fact that I have stated several times that even the more than 200 square kilometers of territory, which is currently under Azerbaijani occupation and is an inseparable part of Armenia's internationally recognized 29,743 square kilometers of sovereign territory, is not a return issue for the Republic of Armenia through military means, because the aforementioned regulations have already fundamentally resolved this issue and there are realistic and substantial opportunities to address it in the delimitation process.”

“In this context, I find it necessary to emphasize that on the occasion of the 33rd anniversary of the Armenian army, I announced that our army should not be used outside the internationally recognized sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia (of course, this does not relate to the participation of Armenian peacekeeping forces in the composition of international peacekeeping forces). Therefore, the theses about Armenia’s intention to attack Azerbaijan are simply fictitious.”

“Is the Republic of Armenia arming itself? The Republic of Armenia is reforming its army within the framework of the aforementioned principles, that is, to protect its internationally recognized territorial integrity and sovereignty, including that recognized by Azerbaijan. This is, moreover, an internationally recognized right of any country, the very questioning of which is the grossest violation of international law.”

“Do the reforms in the Armenian army have anything to do with Azerbaijan? Yes and no. No, because, as I clarified above, Armenia has no intention, program, or goal to carry out any military operation against Azerbaijan. Yes, because threats to the security of the Republic of Armenia are being generated right in Azerbaijan. First, contrary to the Prague Agreement, statements undermining the territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia have been voiced from the highest echelons of Azerbaijan. These statements are most completely framed in the so-called 'Western Azerbaijan' rhetoric that is sponsored by the highest leadership of Azerbaijan and in the foundational documents of the organization of the same name, around 60 percent of the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia is referred to as ‘territories currently under the control of the Republic of Armenia’ or 'territories managed by the political and legal entity currently called the Republic of Armenia.' Now let’s compare this with the theatrically staged trials occurring in Baku, Azerbaijan's billion-dollar arms acquisitions, and the aggressive rhetoric from official Baku, and it becomes clear that real threats are being generated against the security of the Republic of Armenia in Azerbaijan.

Solutions to this situation have been put on the table and have been generated as a result of the joint work of representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan. First, the already agreed-upon articles of the peace agreement fundamentally resolve not only the issue of having no territorial claims against each other but also the issue of not presenting such claims in the future. The signing of the peace agreement forever closes the door—already shut in Prague—on any territorial claims against each other.

The agreed portion of the peace agreement is sufficiently weighty and mature for signing, although for the two unresolved articles, the Republic of Armenia has proposed comprehensive solutions and is waiting for a positive response from Azerbaijan. Moreover, the Republic of Armenia has submitted a written proposal to Azerbaijan regarding the establishment of mechanisms for mutual control of armaments and joint investigation of border incidents and is awaiting a positive response from Azerbaijan. Additionally, the Republic of Armenia has proposed a written framework agreement for carrying out rail transportation between Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan through the territory of Armenia and between Armenia and Armenia through Azerbaijan and is waiting for a positive response from Azerbaijan.

The State Commission on delimitation of the state border and border security issues between the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of Azerbaijan and the State Commission on delimitation of the state border of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia are working productively and constructively. Recently, there was a meeting of the inter-agency commission dealing with the issues of prisoners of war, hostages, and missing persons from the Republic of Armenia and the State Commission of Azerbaijan dealing with prisoners of war, hostages, and missing citizens. All of this means that there are no preconditions for escalation in the region and, moreover, all the prerequisites for peace have been established. It is necessary to abandon staged actions and the politics of staging escalations and to establish institutional peace. Armenia is not only ready for this but will not retreat from this path,” said Pashinyan.