War May Occur If Power Changes Hands in Armenia and Territorial Concessions Stop – Zatulin

The necessity of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh is "approaching zero" as there are no Armenians left in the area. This announcement was made by Konstantin Zatulin, the First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma's Commonwealth of Independent States Affairs Committee. According to Gazeta.ru, he stated, "The withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from the territory of Karabakh is predetermined by two factors and is quite natural under the current conditions. The first factor is the fact that the Armenian government has recognized Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, and since that moment, everything happening in the territory of Karabakh has become a topic of discussion between Russia and Azerbaijan, without Armenia's participation. The second factor is that in 2023, Azerbaijan began a second wave of attacks and seized Nagorno-Karabakh, while the Armenian population mainly left the territory; they simply did not remain there. Therefore, in this regard, the need for Russian peacekeepers to be present there has begun to approach zero,” he said.

Zatulin emphasized that Azerbaijan plans to "eradicate the traces of the Armenian presence" in the republic, making the presence of Russian peacekeepers a potential cause of conflict for both sides. “One could cling to the prospects of some part of the Armenian population returning to Nagorno-Karabakh, one could advocate that peacekeepers are there to ensure the protection of Armenian property and cultural historical monuments, including those of global historical significance. But in that case, it would completely depend on Azerbaijan's goodwill, its desire to show openness in this matter, and its willingness to have witnesses to what it intends to do in the territory of Karabakh. Apparently, it intends to 'digest' this territory and gradually eradicate the traces of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. In this situation, Russian peacekeepers become a pretext for conflicts: if they complained about this, it would create problems in relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. If they didn't complain, as they did not in 2023 against Azerbaijan's new actions in Karabakh, then they could be blamed by the Armenian side for being mere statisticians, allies of Azerbaijan in uprooting the Armenian presence in Nagorno-Karabakh,” he added.

According to the deputy, there are no reasons to start a new war in Nagorno-Karabakh after the withdrawal of peacekeepers. “As a result, what war could occur here? A war could occur if people come to power in Armenia who stop conceding Armenia’s territory and Armenian national interests; Azerbaijan would not agree to that. However, under the current circumstances, I do not see any prospects for war over Nagorno-Karabakh concerning Russian peacekeepers. There are no Armenians left there,” Zatulin stated.