The US Cannot Guarantee Armenia's Security, but Can Help: Just Security

Facing a hostile neighbor in Azerbaijan and a helpless ally in Russia, Armenia is undergoing serious upheaval in its foreign policy. Following the devastating defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023 and the recent border clashes that resulted in the deaths of four Armenian soldiers, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has frozen Armenia's participation in the CSTO, as reported by Just Security.

The article notes that against the backdrop of this geopolitical potential shift, Washington may be tempted to intervene and play a role that Russia has failed to fulfill. However, instead of providing unwavering support, the US should adopt a more cautious strategy that aligns with both its own and Armenia's interests, allowing Armenia the ability to defend itself while also setting clear expectations regarding the limits of its commitments.

“Russia's peacekeeping role has never been clear or reliable, with its forces rendered inactive during Baku's attacks, allowing those attacks to continue, including on Armenia’s own territory. In fact, Russia's inaction has emboldened Baku, which is not a CSTO member,” the article states.

The website raises the question of whether the US should be concerned at all about what is happening in the South Caucasus. A narrow view of national interests may suggest that the region, while understandably a cause for great concern among the significant Armenian diaspora living in the US, has no strategic significance. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan's incursion into Armenia contradicts American interests. Aggression would undermine the principles underpinning US support for Ukraine, which holds that international borders are inviolable and democracy must be defended.

The incursion could also further destabilize the region and disrupt energy flows that NATO allies are increasingly relying on as they move away from Russian supplies. Finally, the US must consider the humanitarian repercussions of another war that would claim lives and lead to the displacement of many civilians, beyond the 120,000 people who were already forced to flee from Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia last year.

Other countries have begun to respond to the call for supporting Armenia’s defensive capabilities, but without the US, their efforts will be insufficient. France and India are currently the most active participants. Experts are calling on the EU to provide military assistance to Armenia.

Like Taiwan against China, Armenia’s best chance for survival lies in asymmetric defense. It is noted that the US could help bolster Armenia's deterrent capabilities by providing short-range air defense systems as well as TROPHY countermeasure systems designed to enhance the protection of armored vehicles. Arms exports to Armenia could also include broader systems for countering drones. This technology could augment the capabilities that Armenia currently receives under existing contracts.

American politicians may be concerned that Western military technology could end up in the hands of Russia. In compliance with the regulations regarding arms export control, any military assistance to Armenia must meet end-use requirements and be monitored. The US should demand verifiable guarantees that Armenia will ensure the implementation of Western export controls.

Kazakhstan, which is also a member of the EAEU and CSTO, has announced a policy to prevent parallel imports and may provide a model for such guarantees.

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