Tensions Between Armenia and Azerbaijan Will Persist in 2024: U.S. Intelligence

Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan will persist in 2024. This is stated in the annual threat assessment published by U.S. national intelligence.

According to the report’s authors, Armenia's loss of Nagorno-Karabakh has slightly reduced the level of instability, but has not completely eliminated the risks.

The likelihood of new conflict is conditioned by several factors including the absence of a peace treaty, the short distance between military positions of the two countries, the lack of ceasefire monitoring mechanisms, and Baku's readiness to use military force.

U.S. assessments indicate that Azerbaijan will continue to exert pressure on Armenia to achieve its objectives. Baku particularly aims to obtain an extraterritorial corridor to Nakhichevan, which also increases the risk of armed confrontation.

International relations expert Sergey Melkonyan wrote on his Telegram channel, presenting a brief excerpt:
"Key details:
1. Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan will persist, despite Baku's success in capturing Nagorno-Karabakh.
2. Possible conflicts between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2024 may be short-term and of limited intensity.
3. Factors increasing the risk of new conflict include Azerbaijan's willingness to use force and military pressure to achieve its goals, positions being close together, and the absence of ceasefire mechanisms and a peace treaty."