Azerbaijan is Clearly Preparing for Military Operations, Says Beglaryan

Various official and unofficial statements and materials clearly demonstrate that in recent days Azerbaijan has been accumulating large volumes of military equipment and troops around Artsakh and Armenia. This was stated by Artak Beglaryan, advisor to the state minister of Artsakh, on his Facebook page.

It is noteworthy that several developments have preceded these processes, including active meetings between the Azerbaijani military-political leadership and high-ranking officials from Turkey and Israel, an intensification of arms imports from Israel, the Czech Republic, and Turkey, a sharp increase in ceasefire violations, and false accusations directed at the Armenian side. Furthermore, these movements have been accompanied by numerous videos and militaristic calls circulating in the Azerbaijani social media sphere, which were clearly permitted and organized by the authorities.

It is evident that Azerbaijan is preparing for military operations while trying to exert psychological pressure on the authorities and societies of Artsakh and Armenia, as well as testing the reactions of the Armenian sides and regional and global players. In this situation, it is very important to employ all diplomatic tools to prevent possible military aggression, while also preparing as much as possible to respond to potential aggression with military means. One thing is clear: it is possible to prevent military operations until the onset of hostilities.

For the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts at this stage, I would like to highlight four main principles that the authorities of Armenia and Artsakh should consider:

1. The Armenian side must never leave an impression of being obstructive with international actors, always being open to constructive negotiations and progress. To this end, it is important to maintain effective open and closed communication with everyone, ensuring that no excessive expectations are formed in these relationships, and clearly presenting and substantiating our positions and the interests and needs underlying them.
2. Especially in such fragile periods, the authorities must refrain from any actions that may weaken any factor of our security environment. At this moment, our task should be the opposite: to strengthen all factors and avoid creating a security vacuum, otherwise that vacuum may become the shock point that Azerbaijan is waiting for. In this context, it’s crucial that we avoid becoming active tools in conflicts between major powers against each other, as small countries like ours do not have sufficient strategic capital to withstand even the ‘jealousy’ of great powers.
3. We must identify the vulnerable points of Azerbaijan, where it is possible to increase the practical cost of its hostile or even obstructive actions in the short term. The genocidal blockade of Artsakh and the occupation of Armenian territories last September provide Armenia with the best grounds to demand the imposition of sanctions against Azerbaijan and its authorities and various individuals who have committed crimes from the EU and the USA. I believe Armenia has unnecessarily delayed incorporating sanctions against Azerbaijan into its foreign policy agenda, which has allowed Azerbaijan to fully absorb the September aggression and the continuous occupation of Armenian territories, while also continuing to tolerate the genocide against the people of Artsakh. As long as Armenia has not presented specific practical and substantiated demands and proposals to its partners, they will continue to act as technical mediators, forgetting their obligations regarding international security and peacekeeping and genocide prevention.
4. Of course, one of the main factors in deterring Azerbaijan’s new aggression is the ability of the Armenian armed forces and the Artsakh Defense Army to resist. The more prepared we are to raise the price of potential military aggression with military means, the more difficult it will be for Azerbaijani authorities to make the decision to attack Artsakh and Armenia.

In conclusion, let me remind you that we do not want war and are always ready to resolve conflicts through peaceful negotiations; however, this cannot happen under conditions where our people are being subjected to genocide and other severe crimes “with peaceful means.”