Predicted New Earthquake in Turkey Could Be More Devastating and Strike Istanbul, Scientists Warn

On February 6, an earthquake occurred in Turkey near the border with Syria, one of the most powerful in recent decades. As of the latest reports, more than 11,000 people have died. However, scientists predict that the country may be struck by another powerful earthquake in the coming years, and this time it could affect Istanbul, with a population of 15 million, according to Meduza.

The inevitability of an earthquake was noted back in 2006 by Okan Tüysüz, who at that time was the director of the Eurasian Institute of Earth Sciences at Istanbul Technical University.

“We know the magnitude. We know the place. We just don’t know exactly when it will occur. However, there is a 65 percent probability that Istanbul will experience an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.6 by 2030. That’s a very high probability,” the scientist evaluated the likelihood of a powerful earthquake in Istanbul in the coming years.

Not only Turkish researchers have predicted the potential intensity of the earthquake, but also experts from the U.S. Geological Survey, Italy, France, Japan, and even international insurance companies.

The risk is associated with Istanbul's geological position. It is located at the junction of the Anatolian and Eurasian tectonic plates, about 15-20 km from the North Anatolian Fault line, which runs under the Sea of Marmara.

The movement of plates along the fault has led to major earthquakes for centuries. In the last 500 years, powerful disasters have occurred six to seven times. One of the most catastrophic earthquakes happened in 1766, when a branch of the fault exploded near the city. This is the scenario scientists are currently fearing.