99% of Imported Wheat Comes from Russia: Armenia's Dependency on the Russian Market by the Numbers

The backdrop of the Russo-Ukrainian war has sparked discussions in Armenia regarding food security for certain products. Given the escalating nature of hostilities and the West's tightening of economic sanctions against Russia, concerns about food security are entirely justified. These issues primarily pertain to products whose majority is imported from Russia and Ukraine. A vivid example is wheat.

Each product will require separate investigation, and this article reveals which items Armenia imports most from Russia and the significance of Russia within the total import structure of these food products. We will also consider Ukraine separately, as well as the food markets.

Gas, gasoline, wheat, oil, etc.: Armenia's Commodity Dependency on Russia

Although there are general figures on foreign trade from 2021, Armenia's customs service has yet to publish detailed import and export data by country and product. Therefore, we have examined the years 2019-2020. According to customs data, in 2020, Armenia imported goods worth a total of $1.651 billion from Russia. The share of Russia in Armenia's imports is approximately 33%.

It can be said that Armenia's imports from Russia are diversified. Overall, Armenia imports over 1,200 product types from Russia. Since it is impossible to address all product categories in one article, we have highlighted the items with the highest value in the total.

Thus, the largest commodity group for imports from Russia to Armenia is gas. In 2020, 2.2 billion cubic meters of gas were imported, with a customs value of $364 million. Gas accounted for 22% of the imports from Russia.

The next major commodity group is petroleum products—gasoline, and diesel fuel. A total of 326,000 tons were imported, valued at about $164 million.

The third-largest imported product is wheat. In 2020, 347,000 tons of wheat were imported from Russia at a value of $72 million. Currently, the issue of food security related to grains—specifically wheat—has been emphasized.

While this topic requires separate study, it is crucial to understand not only how much wheat Armenia imports from Russia, but also the portion of the total wheat imported that comes from this country.

In 2020, Armenia imported a total of 350,000 tons of wheat worth $72 million, 99% of which was from Russia, with the remaining small portion coming from Georgia.

Among the most imported products from Russia to Armenia are raw aluminum, mobile phones, chocolate, sunflower oil, pharmaceuticals, cars, etc. The top 10 products by value account for almost half of total imports. The composition of these ten products remains almost the same as in 2019, with the only notable change being a sharp decrease in gold imports from Russia.

This infographic outlines the shares of the top 10 imported products from Russia and the volumes of the top 20.

It should be noted that Russia is either the main or one of the largest suppliers for all 20 product types. The following infographic highlights food products among the top 50 items imported from Russia to Armenia and details their share in the total imports of these products. The comparison is presented by value, though proportionalities are largely similar when comparing by quantity. For instance, 97% of the oil imported to Armenia in 2020 was from Russia (by value), 72% of margarine, and 67% of confectionery. In the case of grains, as mentioned, it is 99%.

For pharmaceuticals, however, the picture differs. Although 56% of the weight of imported medicines comes from Russia, by value, only 19% of the pharmaceuticals originate from Russia. This indicates that while the quantity of Russian medicines is high, their value is relatively low. Conversely, medicines from other countries may have a larger value despite coming in smaller quantities.

There are also products within the composition of food imports from Russia that, while not among the highest valued, are primary or main suppliers. Examples include cereals, poultry, etc.

Armenian Exports to Russia: Cognac at the Forefront

Russia is the largest market for Armenian products. According to customs service data, in 2020, goods worth the equivalent of $673,171,000 were exported to Russia, representing an 8% decrease compared to the previous year. According to the statistical committee, Russia accounted for approximately 27% of Armenia's total exports in 2020.

Over 800 product types are declared in the list of exported goods. The most sought-after Armenian product in the Russian market is cognac. In 2020, 20.5 million liters of cognac were exported, accounting for about 24% of Armenia's exports to Russia, with a customs value of around $159 million. In 2020, 78% of the cognac exported from Armenia (by value) was sent to Russia.

Agricultural products, including fish, tomatoes, fruits, and others, play a significant role in the list of the top 10 exported products from Armenia to Russia (see infographic). Diamonds, ferro-molybdenum, and Armenian tobacco are also in demand in the Russian market.