Wheat, Oil, Meat Products: What Will Happen to Armenia's Market If Imports from Russia and Ukraine Cease

As previously reported, the export of grain crops from Russia to EAEU countries, including Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, has been banned. The ban is set to last until August 31 and covers wheat, barley, oats, corn, and several other products.

It is no secret that Armenia has strong economic ties with Russia as well as Ukraine. Auroranews.am has examined the import data for Armenia for the first half of 2021, published on the official website of the State Revenue Committee.

By correlating the classifications of the External Economic Activity Goods Nomenclature (EAEG) with import country-product data, we have identified several food products and analyzed which country is the largest supplier of these products to Armenia, the volumes of imports from Russia or Ukraine, and what alternative import options we might have besides the aforementioned countries.

Wheat
In the first half of 2021, Armenia imported wheat from Russia and Georgia. The lion's share of imports, 62,456 tons, came from Russia. Meanwhile, 2,550 tons were imported from Georgia during the same period.

Sunflower, Corn, or Cotton Oil
In terms of the important food product oil, we also heavily depend on Russia. In the first half of 2021, 12,041 tons of oil were imported; the second-largest importer is Ukraine, with about 200 tons. Next in line are Italy, with 19 tons; Cyprus, with 12 tons; and Belarus, with 2 tons.

Poultry and Meat Products
Here, Ukraine leads with 6,320 tons, with Russia in second place at 2,508 tons, followed by Brazil with 1,415 tons, the USA with 876 tons, Germany with 765 tons, the UK with 526 tons, and Belarus with 133 tons.

Margarine
Most margarine or margarine raw materials are imported from Russia, with a total of 7,290 tons, followed by Ukraine at 892 tons. Smaller volumes are imported from Italy (154 tons), Belgium (70 tons), Georgia (13 tons), and Germany (4 tons).

Bread and Confectionery
The import picture for bread made from flour and confectionery is as follows: 69 tons from Belarus, 29 tons from Bulgaria, 3 tons from Belgium, 6 tons from Turkmenistan, 5 tons from Germany, and 2 tons from Denmark.

Natural and Liquid Gas
The import of natural and liquid gas is mainly organized from Iran and Russia. In the first half of 2021, 176,760 thousand cubic meters were imported from Iran and 1,150,901 thousand cubic meters from Russia.

Thus, the customs statistics of the RA reveal that Armenia imports a significant volume of essential food products from Russia and, in some cases, from Ukraine.

Panic Buying and Its Consequences
Since yesterday, there have been various reports of "panic" buying in Armenia and Georgia. Auroranews.am has received alarming messages that people attempted to buy flour in bags elsewhere, but retailers refused to sell it, stating that it was unavailable.

Today, on March 11, member of the "Civil Contract" faction Babken Tunyan assured that not only Armenia but also other EAEU member countries have already purchased the necessary wheat reserves for 2021-2022, emphasizing that there are no objective grounds for spreading panic among the population.

It is worth noting that we witnessed a similar situation in March 2020 when the first wave of the coronavirus spread in the country. People began to engage in "panic" buying.

We remind you that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan urged citizens not to engage in "panic" buying, as it would lead to rising prices for food and other products.