Azerbaijan Seeks to 'Bind Armenia's Hands' by Depriving It of Resistance Opportunities

In recent days, the Azerbaijani military’s incursion into Armenian territory has multiple underlying causes. Razm.info has addressed the strategic dimension of these actions.

By examining Azerbaijan’s operations in isolation, such as in the vicinity of Lake Sevan and in Gegharkunik at locations like Kut and Verin Shorja, we get a fragmented, local picture rather than a comprehensive view of events.

Moreover, we believe that considering Azerbaijan's advances in all directions as one major operation fails to present the complete picture if we do not take into account the overall context of Azerbaijan's policy since November 10, 2020.

After the signing of the trilateral statement on November 10, territories that were still under our control at the time were handed over to Azerbaijan in the southern part of the Kashatagh region. According to Nikol Pashinyan's admission, this was done 'through verbal understanding,' as there was no mention of transferring these territories in the statement.

Following the loss of these territories, Azerbaijan established control over a section of the Armenia-Iran interstate highway, positioning its military directly at the outskirts of the city of Kapan.

Due to the handing over of positions defending the eastern border of Syunik, the Armenian side has been deprived of operational depth in that area, while Azerbaijan, conversely, has gained strategic deterrence and pressure capabilities. In this arrangement of forces, various scenarios of military confrontation with Azerbaijan make the city of Kapan a direct target for the enemy.

Azerbaijan's actions during these days are a logical continuation of its policy to add new levers of strategic pressure against Armenia.

In both the conflict in general and the current specific border operations, the Azerbaijani side operates under the logic of a 'zero-sum game.' This is a situation where anything that is a 'plus' for the opponent automatically becomes a 'minus' for you, and vice versa.

In recent days, the territories captured by Azerbaijan hold little significance for Baku from a security perspective, as the Armenian presence there does not threaten Azerbaijani infrastructure, roads, and resources. However, the opposite is true for Armenia; the Azerbaijani presence endangers Armenian infrastructure, roads, and resources.

By establishing positions in the heights near Lake Sevan, Azerbaijan aims to target the city of Goris, as it has already done in Kapan, creating a more favorable platform for itself while significantly limiting the Armenian side's options for various hypothetical military operations.

Using the same logic, Azerbaijan is also acting in the areas of Kut and Verin Shorja in Gegharkunik. Militarily and logistically, the most complex direction for Azerbaijan from the occupied territories in Karvachar is due to the difficult terrain. Currently, Karvachar is serviced by a rather complex mountain road stretching approximately 45 km through the Mrav mountain range, which significantly limits and complicates the operational activities and logistics of the Azerbaijani armed forces in that area.

We have no doubt that over time Azerbaijan will improve this road, seek alternative routes to diversify its pathways, and simultaneously strengthen its military presence by constructing new military units. These measures will mitigate the objective problems posed by the terrain but will not fully resolve them.

In the areas of Kut and Verin Shorja, Azerbaijan is trying to establish controlling positions within Armenian territory, exerting control over the roads leading from Armenia to Karvachar and overall operational directions, thus limiting the flexibility of the Armenian side’s actions in various hypothetical scenarios.

In summary, it can be noted that Azerbaijan is currently attempting to 'bind Armenia's hands' by depriving it of the opportunity for effective resistance against Azerbaijan in the future. It is crucial to emphasize that Azerbaijan openly pursues this policy. On May 6, Azerbaijan's Secretary of the Security Council, Ramil Usubov, stated that 'Ilham Aliyev's special attitude is to ensure that Armenia is not allowed to restore its military and political resources, to avoid becoming a threat again.'

We must also recognize that such developments have been expected since November 10, but we cannot exclude the possibility that Azerbaijan may intrude into other parts of Armenia, continuing its policy of 'suffocating Armenia.'