Violation of Armenia's State Border is a Violation of CSTO Borders: The First Real Test of the CSTO

According to the daily newspaper "Zhoghovurd," it has been six days since certain groups of Azerbaijani armed forces have continued to be present in some border areas of Syunik and Gegharkunik regions. As a result of negotiations involving the Russian side, some forces have withdrawn from Armenian territory; however, the overall military-political situation remains unchanged. Armenia's internationally recognized borders have been violated, with the forces of a hostile country invading sovereign territory.

Here, Armenia has two solutions: the first is to engage in military confrontation and forcibly reclaim its own territory, which carries the risk of starting a large-scale war and establishing instability in the region. The second is to achieve the liberation of the territory through negotiations, with the assistance of international security mechanisms and allies' pressure. The first option has initially been frozen due to direct influence from Moscow. The statements released by the Kremlin and the unequivocal remarks from the President of Russia's press secretary leave no room for doubt that military confrontation is unacceptable for Moscow in any case.

This serves as a guiding principle for both Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities. The actions of the Azerbaijani side can be clearly characterized as a military provocation aimed at compelling Armenia to open a road through Syunik, which would link Turkey and Nakhchivan to Azerbaijan. Although there is no mention of the so-called Zangezur corridor in the trilateral statement of November 9, Baku is attempting to exploit the complex situation created in Armenia after the war and, by distorting the commitments regarding unblocking communications, to impose the establishment of a corridor that only serves its interests.

The President of Azerbaijan even made an explicit threat of force, warning about the prospects of forcibly opening a corridor. The Armenian side has decisively rejected this absurd demand put forward by Azerbaijan. Unable to reach concessions, Baku resorted to military blackmail, attempting to seize some heights along the border. Such provocations from Baku are undoubtedly coordinated with Turkey, which, although not acting overtly, seeks to expel Russia from the region, and having a corridor with Azerbaijan would be a significant achievement in that regard.

Understanding the seriousness of the situation and the risks of escalating the crisis, the Armenian side activated its military-political toolset, appealing to both the CSTO and its strategic ally, Russia. According to official statements, the inviolability of Armenia's borders is the inviolability of CSTO borders. If Armenia's state border has been violated, the CSTO border has been violated as well.

It would be naive to think that the leadership of Azerbaijan, initiating an invasion of Armenian territory, did not realize or did not understand that it was infringing upon the territory of CSTO's area of responsibility or a strategically allied country of Russia. This rather dangerous game between Turkey and Azerbaijan is aimed at testing Russia's possible reaction, as well as the effectiveness of CSTO mechanisms in the created situation. In fact, this is the first real test of the CSTO's viability, and the absence of a proportional response would deal a serious blow not only to the organization but also undermine Russia's positions in the region.

In relation to the fulfillment of Russia's contractual obligations within that (CSTO) framework, we have always fulfilled, are fulfilling, and will fulfill our responsibilities,” these words belong to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who made such a statement on October 7, 2020, during the hottest days of the 44-day war. If the aggression during the Karabakh war was taking place outside the internationally recognized borders of the Republic of Armenia, now we are dealing with aggression unfolding within the territory of Armenia itself, therefore the relevance of Vladimir Putin's words regarding the fulfillment of obligations to Armenia is more vital than ever.