If No Measures Were Taken, We Would Have 30 Thousand Infected and Hundreds of Deaths in Yerevan, Says Deputy Prime Minister

The government’s draft decision to extend the state of emergency for 30 days, until May 14, was presented in the National Assembly by Deputy Prime Minister Tigran Avinyan, who outlined the situation that would have unfolded had Armenian authorities taken no action.

Avinyan emphasized that in terms of the risk of infection, 12 percent of the permanent population, or more than 353,000 people, are considered at risk based on age, regardless of their health status. “The number of individuals with type 2 diabetes in Armenia is 77,418, the number with ischemic heart disease is 71,025, and those with hypertension stand at 145,408,” said Avinyan, adding that these are only the registered figures.

He also pointed out that the highest risk is for those individuals who suffer from multiple chronic illnesses and belong to older age groups. Presenting the statistics, Avinyan stated that if no measures had been implemented, there would be approximately 30,000 infected individuals and hundreds of deaths in Armenia at this time.

“The rate of infection spread was 2.4, meaning one person would infect 2.4 others, and the potential number of carriers would peak 75-80 days after the first recorded case. In this sense, we are currently around the 50th day. At that point, the number of infected individuals among the population would reach 89 percent. The number of serious hospitalizations in Yerevan would reach 8,200. I mean the most severe cases, and there would be 110,000 infected people in Yerevan. In that scenario, we would specifically have 30,000 infected individuals and hundreds of deaths in Yerevan today,” said Avinyan.