Ashotyan Makes Predictions Based on Government Capacities

According to Ashotyan, the Armenia-EU agreement will not be ratified in 2019 due to the current circumstances of the government. This was stated by Armenian Republican Party Deputy Chairman Armen Ashotyan on his Facebook page.

Below is the full text of his post:

“Following the change of power, the Armenia-EU agreement has faced severe challenges not only in implementation and reforms but has, unfortunately, visibly lost its political significance and value under Nikol Pashinyan’s government.

The full political meaning and weight of the agreement, its diplomatic crown, lies in its final and complete ratification. For this, the agreement must first be ratified at the national level by the EU member states, and ultimately by the European Parliament.

However, I would like to remind you that to date, one year after the signing, only 9 out of 28 EU member states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Luxembourg, the UK, Romania, and Denmark) have ratified the agreement.

Before the change of power, we set a goal to have the Armenia-EU agreement ratified within 1.5-2 years. It is evident, however, that this work is completely in a state of neglect. The heavyweight EU countries, Germany and France, have also not yet ratified the agreement, despite Pashinyan’s selfie moments with Merkel and three working meetings with Macron, as well as his uninhibited dancing at the Francophonie summit.

It is already clear that the final ratification of the agreement will not occur during the current session of the European Parliament since the new elections will take place from May 23 to 26 of this year. The extent to which the new European Parliament and European Commission will prioritize the agreement with Armenia will depend on the election results, post-election arrangements, restructuring of European institutions, and, of course, the target-oriented, professional, and effective work of the Armenian government.

For the agreement to be ratified by the end of the year, it is necessary to:

1. Accelerate the ratification process in the remaining 19 countries.
2. Send maximally positive signals to Brussels before the European elections.
3. Accelerate the internal implementation process of the agreement according to sectors by taking real reform actions.
4. Make maximum use of parliamentary diplomacy tools.
5. Establish quick contacts with the new leadership of the EU after the elections, attempting to promote the “Armenian dossier.”

Considering the existing issues and the capabilities of the new authorities, albeit with a desire not to be mistaken, I am forced to make a pessimistic prediction that the Armenia-EU agreement will not be ratified within 2019.

(to be continued)