Assessing Pashinyan's Chances in the Elections from Azerbaijan

Kocharian will not be able to mobilize people. Pashinyan's chances are greater. This was stated by Elmar Mammadyarov, the former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan, according to Azerbaijani media.

The dependence of Armenia on Russia, primarily in military-political and economic matters, was shaped during the period when Kocharian and his allies were in power.

“It is precisely Kocharian's legacy that has been passed on to Pashinyan. And I believe that even if Pashinyan does not want it, Russia's influence over Armenia will still be preserved,” he said.

According to him, all these statements are primarily elements of the pre-election struggle.

“Kocharian cannot help but criticize Pashinyan, as he is his competitor. I believe that this is wrong, because any sober-thinking citizen of Armenia will understand that his arguments are groundless,” the expert explained.

Referring to Kocharian's remarks that TRIPP will lead to problems for Armenia, the political scientist pointed out that the Armenian opposition has initially been against TRIPP. However, based on recent analyses, interested parties such as Russia and Iran do not particularly oppose this project.

“Russia understands that this outcome is necessary for it, given the sanctions imposed by Western countries. At least to enter the Turkish market via the railway. In this case, much depends on how the Armenian leadership will implement that project. Of course, a lot also depends on the Americans' position, but it seems to me that American operators, despite the Iranian factor, will want to work quite actively on the implementation of the project,” the analyst asserted.

Mammadyarov, discussing Kocharian's chances in the elections, noted that they are quite limited. According to him, it is possible that Kocharian may gather a certain percentage and enter the parliament, but becoming a prime minister, even in a possible coalition, is unlikely.

“Look at the situation. Kocharian abandoned the idea of holding rallies because he knows he won’t be able to mobilize people. Recent events showed that even counting paid participants, only 10-12 thousand people attended the rallies. That is a drop in the ocean. Pashinyan, during his time in 2018, gathered more than 100,000 people in the squares when he was ousting Serzh Sargsyan. The population of Armenia is tired of these Kocharian, Karapetyan, Sargsyan, and so on. People do not believe them. Principally do not believe in big money. So in this case, it seems to me that Pashinyan's chances are greater,” concluded Elmar Mammadyarov.