US Blocks Iran's Gas Route; Turkmenistan Considers New Options

Due to US pressure, the planned gas exchange agreement between Iraq, Iran, and Turkmenistan failed in September. This project aimed for Baghdad to import up to 5 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas annually through Iranian territory to meet its electricity shortfall. However, the threat of secondary sanctions from Washington forced Iraq to abandon the deal.

Energy expert David O'Byrne noted that while this is not a large volume compared to the 34 billion cubic meters Turkmenistan supplies to China each year, it could signal Ashgabat to reconsider its export directions.

The tightening of American restrictions on Iran and the reinstatement of UN Security Council sanctions are hindering Turkmenistan's plans to export gas to neighboring countries through Iranian pipelines. In this context, analysts predict that Turkmenistan will intensify negotiations with Azerbaijan and Turkey toward constructing the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, potentially opening a route to European markets.

Additionally, a new overland gas pipeline idea is also under discussion along a possible future Azerbaijani-Armenian corridor, which is being presented in international circles as a “Route of Peace and Prosperity.” Observers believe that such projects may receive an additional boost amid the growing US influence and the emerging new political balance in the region.