Pashinyan's Abrupt Decision: Armenia is Being Removed from the EAEU

The Armenian government today approved the bill on "the start of the process for the Republic of Armenia's membership in the European Union." Prime Minister Pashinyan stated, "Armenia can only become an EU member if a referendum is held, and the necessary number of votes in favor is secured as stipulated by our constitution."

This decision by the Armenian authorities can be characterized, perhaps, in one word: abrupt. As a member of the EAEU economic bloc, Armenia is beginning the process of joining another major economic union.

It is not difficult to assume what kind of reaction this decision by the Armenian authorities will receive in the EAEU and particularly in Russia. It cannot be ruled out that after Armenia's drastic move, Russia may de facto or de jure remove Armenia from the EAEU, leading to an economic collapse. It is perhaps obvious that by formally looking towards the European Union, Armenia is being involuntarily pushed out of the EAEU.

It is clear that the EU cannot start the process with a representative of a major rival economic bloc. In 2024, Armenia was set to hold the presidency in the EAEU, but at Pashinyan's request, the summit of the organization was moved from Yerevan to St. Petersburg. However, the Armenian Prime Minister could not attend the summit due to a positive COVID test, participating instead remotely.

At the first cabinet meeting of 2025, Pashinyan's government made essentially a monumental decision. A decision whose roots and motivations we will discuss later. For now, we can only hope that this step by the Armenian government is calculated and will not lead to economic and political shocks.