Russia Forecasts Decline in Grain Exports

In the past agricultural year (July 2023 - June 2024), Russia exported 72 million tons of grain. The Ministry of Agriculture maintains a forecast of 60 million tons for this agricultural year, as stated by the agency's head, Oksana Lut.

“In the last season, we actually confirmed 72 million tons of grain (exports). We are waiting for the calculations, but 72 million tons will definitely be confirmed,” she said.

In response to a question regarding the forecast for wheat exports in the current agricultural year, Lut noted that it has not yet been determined. “There are no final forecasts for wheat yields yet. Yield figures may fluctuate downward. When we understand how much harvest we will collect, we will accordingly set an acceptable delta for determining export quotas for next year,” she emphasized, highlighting that meeting internal needs is the top priority.

Lut also reiterated her earlier forecast for grain exports in the current agricultural year at a level of 60 million tons. “Based on the projected grain yield of 132 million tons, we have set a forecast for this season of 60 million tons in exports,” she stated.

Evaluating the onset of commodity interventions in the grain market (grain sales from the state intervention fund), Lut announced that the fund has good quality wheat necessary for mills and bakers. “It is a good price, higher than the price at which wheat was purchased for the fund. But now it is lower than the current market, as the price for third-grade wheat is currently high,” she noted. “Thus, through the intervention fund, we are regulating the situation, especially in the context of flour and bread production, even more bread production.”

Commodity interventions in Russia began on August 19. The government has authorized the sale of up to 500,000 tons of grain from the federal intervention fund in 2024. Currently, the fund has more than 4 million tons of grain, a significant portion of which is wheat. This volume was purchased in several phases—from August 1, 2022, to December 30, 2022 (for more than 47 billion rubles, 3 million tons) and from December 11, 2023, to July 15, 2024 (for 15.4 billion rubles, 1.076 million tons).