Emigration Due to Fear of War: PM Pashinyan Highlights Demographic Strategy Discussion

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan chaired a consultative meeting where the draft demographic strategy of Armenia was discussed. As a continuation of previous discussions, the Prime Minister noted that significant work has been carried out during this period and expressed hope that conclusions would be drawn from today’s discussions.

Pashinyan emphasized that any strategy, including demographic strategy, cannot exist in a vacuum; it is part of a broader context. He explained that demography, by definition, is characterized as the science of populations and is related to the concepts of life and living standards.

According to the Prime Minister, this connects with the recent political discussions and debates because when considering the effectiveness of implementing demographic strategies, there are many points of view that are very specific and positive. However, there is a lack of confidence regarding how realistic it is to achieve these points and what results they will bring.

Pashinyan stated that it is important to understand the life concept underlying demographic strategies and what concept the Republic of Armenia is based on. “If our perception of Armenia is that it is a fortification concept, based on which we should strive for a greater, or as it is commonly said, historical Armenia, that is a life concept. If the Republic of Armenia is a state whose task is to ensure and protect its sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity, and on this basis create conditions for its citizens' freedom, security, prosperity, and happiness, that is a completely different concept,” added Pashinyan.

The Prime Minister noted that a number of obvious factors are not taken into account when discussing the demographic strategy and the current realities of Armenia’s demographics, specifically how many people have emigrated from Armenia just to prevent their children from being on the front lines. Pashinyan pointed out that no one has statistics on how many citizens have been deprived of proper educational opportunities due to this factor. In his opinion, these individuals had enormous potential and could achieve significant success in various fields.

Summarizing his remarks, the Prime Minister emphasized that this does not mean that the strategy should be reconsidered, but rather, it should be viewed in this light.

Following this, the work completed from previous discussions was presented, including revisions of demographic forecasting models based on census results, an analysis of the demographic characteristics of forcibly displaced persons from Nagorno-Karabakh, and integration into the strategy, as well as a summary of the financial assessment calculations of the strategy.

Regarding strategic objectives—growth in births, reduction in deaths, decrease in emigration, and implementation of active aging programs—it was noted that the revised forecasting model is a baseline scenario, and the action program of the demographic strategy, framework for ongoing monitoring, and financial model are built on two scenarios: accelerated and inertial scenarios.

Details about the primary impacts of the demographic strategy were presented, indicating it would lead to a decrease in the aging population's growth, an increase in the youth population, and a reduction in the income-consumption gap by engaging the older generation in socio-economic activities, significantly boosting Armenia's human development index and thereby reducing the existing gap with leading countries.

A discussion ensued exchanging ideas and observations regarding various points of the strategy. The Prime Minister tasked the responsible parties with preparing a report summarizing the discussions, upon which the draft strategy would be presented for government approval, outlining further steps.