The Cost of Armenia's Reorientation Towards the West Will Be High, Says Suslov

The cost of Armenia's reorientation towards the West will be high, said Dmitry Suslov, Deputy Director of the Center for European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, during an international roundtable held in Yerevan on the topic of "Armenia at a Crossroads: CSTO, NATO, or Non-Alignment Status."

According to him, the West is increasing anti-Russian efforts and pressure on CSTO partners. This puts member countries of the organization in a complex situation, as they cannot fully reorient towards Russia due to Western pressures but also cannot sever ties with their CSTO partner.

Suslov predicts that after winning against Ukraine, Russia will continue to dominate the post-Soviet space. In his view, CSTO countries must maintain the status quo, avoid siding with Russia on the Ukrainian issue, and not allow the West to use them in its anti-Russian policies. "After defeating Ukraine, Russia will become stronger, possessing the most powerful, battle-hardened army in Eurasia, so it would be advisable for CSTO countries to maintain good relations with Russia," he stated.

In this context, he believes Armenia is moving in the opposite direction and is effectively shifting to the side of the adversary in the context of direct confrontation between Russia and the West. He argues that the current leadership of Armenia is not diversifying its foreign policy, contrary to its claims.

Suslov is confident that the constant rhetoric about Russia failing in its role as an ally, the demonstrative joining of the ICC, and the possible visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Yerevan will make Armenia one of the anti-Russian countries in the post-Soviet space. The expert believes that Armenia's actions are mainly driven by the belief that Russia would lose in its confrontation with Ukraine. However, he is convinced that the Armenian authorities have miscalculated.

"The price of reorienting towards the West and shifting to the side of the adversary will be high. Part of that price has already been paid, undoubtedly, with the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh," the center's deputy director told Sputnik Armenia.

He is convinced that the suspension of participation in the CSTO is perceived as a conscious invitation for aggression from Azerbaijan, after which the Armenian leadership is seeking additional justification for a final exit from the CSTO.