EU's Hopes to Use Azerbaijan as a Gas Station at Risk of Explosion: POLITICO

The gas and oil from Azerbaijan are of paramount importance to the EU in replacing Russian fossil fuels, but there is also a danger that this could interfere with the EU's efforts to act as a mediator in the South Caucasus. This is reported by POLITICO, recalling that Azerbaijan considers the deployment of the EU’s civilian mission in Armenia as interference in its internal affairs.

At the same time, POLITICO notes that the European Parliament has published a report condemning the human rights situation in Azerbaijan, which has also angered Baku. “All of this casts a shadow over the high-level agreement signed with Azerbaijan to double gas supplies to the EU by 2027 to 20 billion cubic meters,” the publication states.

In an interview with POLITICO, a senior official from the EU diplomatic service lamented that the deployment of the observer mission seems to have aggravated relations with Baku. “We hoped for a completely different scenario with Baku. We share all relevant information about patrols and such because we do not want problems,” said the unnamed official.

According to the article, as Russia is preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine, Brussels hoped to expand its presence in the South Caucasus by building economic ties with Azerbaijan while simultaneously offering political support to Armenia, in an attempt to maintain balance between the two conflicting parties. However, the deployment of 100 observers in Azerbaijan is viewed very negatively.

Last week, Azerbaijani state media reported that “the EU mission is helping to incite Azerbaijan to spark a new war,” and any new conflict would be “the EU’s responsibility.” Azerbaijan's official representative to the EU, Vaqif Sadıqov, has communicated to POLITICO that Baku is concerned about the presence of observers along the border with Azerbaijan.

Baku is also angered by the European Parliament's vote in favor of a report condemning Azerbaijan’s large-scale aggression against Armenia in September. POLITICO reminds that the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, spoke with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan on March 25, but just hours later, Azerbaijan confirmed that its troops had again advanced in the ceasefire zone of Nagorno-Karabakh.

According to Thomas de Waal, a senior analyst at the Carnegie Europe Foundation, if the EU's efforts to achieve a settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan fail, Western countries will be prompted to impose sanctions against Baku, which would create problems for the EU trying to use Azerbaijan as an alternative to Russian fuel.