Pashinyan Gives Up Artsakh to Lead Armenia Towards the West: 'Komsomolskaya Pravda'

It has been clear since the beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine that Washington and Brussels would try to exploit the complex situation to create problems for Moscow throughout the former Soviet Union. In this regard, the case of Artsakh seems most relevant.

Since the 44-day war of 2020 (which ended solely due to Putin's mediation) and the deployment of Russian peacekeeping forces in Artsakh, a fragile peace has prevailed in the region. However, the skirmishes and various scale incidents occurring along the Azerbaijan-Armenia border are evidently occurring within the logic of political pressure to achieve results in negotiations, writes 'Komsomolskaya Pravda.'

Yet, judging by all indications, a new turn in the long-standing conflict is anticipated in the near future. On October 10, a so-called Washington document regarding Armenian-Azerbaijani reconciliation was published on one of the Russian Telegram channels. This document is the result of Western mediation and is considered acceptable by both Aliyev and Pashinyan, according to various sources following meetings in Brussels and Paris, as well as discussions among foreign ministers and security council secretaries in Washington.

From the content of the document, it seems that upon signing, work will commence on the final delimitation of interstate borders, and the construction of the so-called Zangezur corridor (a highway designed to connect eastern Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan through Armenian territory) will begin. Additionally, Azerbaijan is required to appoint an 'official representative' who will discuss and resolve issues related to the security and rights of Armenian residents in Artsakh.

No status is foreseen for the Armenians of Artsakh, much less for the unrecognized Artsakh Republic. Interestingly, the publication of this document has not yet sparked any protest movements in either Armenia or Artsakh. It is clear that this effectively means a complete transition of Artsakh under Azerbaijani jurisdiction, and the formal nature of any 'official representative' is openly acknowledged by Azerbaijan; just recently, Ilham Aliyev reiterated that Armenians living in Artsakh are citizens of Azerbaijan and will be treated according to the country's Constitution. It is evident that soon, no Armenians will remain in Artsakh.

If the current Armenian leadership agrees to accept this document (our sources in the Armenian government assure that Pashinyan is confident in the necessity of signing it soon), it will catalyze tectonic shifts in the South Caucasus. Armenia, signing a peace agreement with Azerbaijan and Turkey, will lose Artsakh and, thus, will ostensibly free itself from existential threats, requiring neither the Russian military base in Gyumri nor Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh. It is abundantly clear that this is indeed the true goal of the Western mediators.

Will Pashinyan proceed with this? According to the opinion of a large part of the Armenian and Russian expert communities, he will do so promptly and without a pang of conscience; before coming to power, he positioned himself as a committed pro-Western figure and a supporter of removing Armenia from the EAEU. Will this provoke unrest in Armenia and Artsakh? Most likely, yes.

Pashinyan retained power in the 2021 elections under slogans of a fair world, maintaining Artsakh as Armenian, and strengthening the strategic alliance with Russia. The Armenian voter, whose patience and tolerance for Pashinyan's failures seem boundless, did not mandate him for such a course and may remind the Prime Minister of all the calamities that have occurred over the past four years. Furthermore, it is unlikely that Armenians have forgotten the lessons of recent history and certainly remember what can happen when left alone with unresolved security issues under Washington's 'honest word.'