Three Scenarios for Overcoming the Current Crisis: Vardanyan

Businessman Ruben Vardanyan has written in his column for RBC that globalization has not led to harmony; on the contrary, it has intensified the polarization of society in many ways. Signs of systemic chaos have emerged, from which a way out must be sought.

According to him, current events represent a new wave of global changes that could last more than one decade. "Transformations will be painful, and no area of life will remain untouched by them. The situation is much more dangerous than the collapse of any system or military, economic, or financial conflict," Vardanyan stated.

He believes that certain assumptions such as the presumption of innocence, the individual’s superiority over society, the inviolability of private property, the truthfulness and reliability of information, and the importance of the middle class as the foundation of a modern state may be disregarded.

Vardanyan outlines three scenarios for overcoming the existing crisis. In the short term, it is crucial to restore supply chains and rebalance financial systems, in other words, to respond to the everyday needs of people and businesses. In the medium term, strategies for resource and partner mobilization must be determined, while in the long term, technological development should be addressed.

Afterwards, one can talk about the emergence of new global trade coalitions and outlines of global trust. "The role of smaller countries, located at the crossroads of civilizations, is growing in civilizational conflicts. Due to their sizes and historical experiences, they can find themselves at the forefront of seeking innovative responses to contemporary challenges and contribute to reducing polarization in the world," Vardanyan wrote.

Furthermore, in the businessman’s opinion, humanity needs moral leaders, individuals from various fields who are ready to come together to discuss critical challenges and seek responses to them. "Systemic chaos requires stepping outside each individual’s ‘tunnel’ thinking to try to see the complete picture. It is these individuals who should form a new framework of trust: we see its crisis worldwide, and the demand for change is global," he emphasized.

"Traditional anchors—family, kin, community, religion, and ideology; national and corporate identities—are becoming blurred, and our personal universe is that environment which shapes, preserves, and develops values. It is possible that a level of trust will emerge in our projects such that even the legal formalization of transactions will simply be a formality since the participants’ credibility will be so great. Only in such an environment will we be able to create a truly new world, rather than wandering among the ruins of the old," Vardanyan stated.