Why is the Prime Minister of Armenia in a hurry? Political scientist on Pashinyan's press conference

Since the end of the 44-day war in 2020, the issue of the delimitation and demarcation of borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan has overshadowed the main topic of Nagorno-Karabakh in the context of the conflict between the two neighboring countries. This was stated by Russian political scientist Sergey Markedonov while commenting on Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's online press conference on January 24 for the Bunin & Co Telegram channel.

On January 24, the Prime Minister announced that he had sent a proposal to Baku and Moscow regarding the de-escalation of the situation at the border. According to Pashinyan, this is essentially about the mirror withdrawal of troops, an idea he first mentioned back in May 2021.

“It seems that today we are witnessing new activity around this plot (delimitation and demarcation). And this is connected not with military activity, but with diplomatic proposals,” Markedonov noted.

Despite the fact that the proposals have been sent to Moscow and Baku, the Armenian opposition, according to the political scientist, has focused attention on one of the addressees, Azerbaijan.

“Pashinyan is being accused of concessions. And in this matter, anything is used—whether it's the communications of the Armenian special representative with Turkish partners in Moscow or the proposals prepared for Baku. At the same time, as in the case of Armenian-Turkish normalization, Russia is, as they say, in the game. An active part of it. Moreover, this is a case where the West does not oppose Russian efforts,” the expert pointed out.

Today, the Prime Minister speaks about the necessity of forming a delimitation commission, but in the opinion of the political scientist, its establishment does not mean that the process will advance immediately.

According to the expert, there is miscommunication between Yerevan and Baku, which requires qualitative inventorying and the indication of possible pathways for untangling complex knots.

Markedonov does not rule out that progress in this direction will be linked to the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, although Moscow would not want this issue to come to the forefront before achieving progress in socio-economic aspects. However, any talk about the unblocking of communications without progress is also problematic.

“Why is the Prime Minister of Armenia in a hurry? Because he has a unique opportunity. The entire power system is subordinated to him. The opposition criticizes, but in return offers almost nothing. He is not ready for a revanche, but is also not in a hurry to build a post-conflict reality. It is unlikely that a peace treaty will be concluded without resolving the border issue. Therefore, delay could create an unfavorable political context for Pashinyan in the future,” the political scientist believes.

No one can guarantee that Pashinyan's current dominance will last forever. At the same time, no matter how events unfold, it is clear for Markedonov that Moscow maintains its special role as a mediator in resolving contentious issues between Yerevan and Baku.