US Convincing Europe to Believe in Russian Threat of Invasion of Ukraine: Financial Times

The EU and NATO allies have endorsed the assessment of US President Joe Biden's administration that Russia may be preparing to invade Ukraine, following an unprecedented exchange of data from US intelligence about Moscow's military preparations, Financial Times reports.

“Weeks of US diplomatic activity with European governments, accompanied by an exchange of intelligence information typically reserved for Washington's closest allies, helped persuade some capitals previously skeptical, including Berlin, that the Kremlin could soon order its troops to enter Ukraine,” the paper states.

Joe Biden is set to warn Vladimir Putin about any potential invasion during a planned video summit on Tuesday, with full backing for retaliatory measures from NATO and the EU, European officials in the defense and security sectors have told Financial Times.

Russia may be planning to invade Ukraine “in early 2022,” a Biden administration official said on Friday, adding that half of the military units expected to participate in such an assault have reached the vicinity of Ukraine's border in the last month.

The US decision to share its intelligence with European nations and issue public warnings stems from Washington's hope that strengthening Western support for sanctions will underscore the cost of any aggression for Moscow. The specifics of the looming sanctions and other countermeasures are still under discussion.

The Kremlin continuously denies plans to invade Ukraine and blames the growing tensions on US and NATO support for Kyiv.

This unusual level of intelligence sharing by the US was due to initial reluctance from some European allies to regard American claims about Russian preparations for invasion as credible, four officials told Financial Times.

The disclosure of confidential intelligence began in early November, prior to last week's NATO ministerial meeting. This step by the US has helped shift the narrative around Ukraine; where European countries previously questioned whether the predictions of a Russian invasion were true, they are now discussing how to deter Russia.