Border Guards Issue and More: What Pashinyan and Putin Will Discuss in Moscow

Following his victory in the snap parliamentary elections on June 20, this marks the first visit of Armenia’s acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to Russia. His last trip to Moscow was exactly three months ago, on April 7. At that time, the leaders of the two countries discussed regional communication unblocking.

This time, the negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin are expected to be significant. During the meeting, they plan to examine the implementation of statements by the leaders of Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan regarding the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which were made on November 9, 2020, and January 11, 2021. However, the key topic of discussion will be finding a resolution to the crisis between Armenia and Azerbaijan that has emerged in the directions of Syunik and Gegharkunik.

It should be noted that during the election campaign and prior to it, Pashinyan repeatedly emphasized the necessity of deepening the strategic allied relations with Russia. In recent months, this cooperation has taken on a new component with the expected deployment of Russian peacekeepers along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in Syunik and Gegharkunik. It can be assumed that the strengthening of these areas with Russian border guards may resolve the crisis that arose following the infiltration of Azerbaijani troops into the border territories of these regions on May 12.

Specifically, the opposing forces are positioned near the villages of Kut and Verin Shorja in the Gegharkunik region, as well as in the area of the Sev Lake in Syunik. As of late May, Pashinyan had stated that Russian border guards or observer groups from the co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group could be deployed along the Sotk-Khoznavar border line, which is located in the border area occupied by Azerbaijani military forces. The armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan should also withdraw from there based on a mirrored principle.

As of now, official Baku has not provided a clear response to this proposal, but it appears that the Russian side has found a more optimal way out of the situation. According to Sputnik Armenia, Russian border guards are ready to be deployed along the border, but initially in "non-problematic" areas. Subsequently, after the withdrawal of the Armenian and Azerbaijani armed forces based on the mirrored principle, they will occupy the tension points. All preparatory works have already been completed, and moreover, judging by the photos that surfaced the day before in the Armenian segment of social networks, the border guards have already begun to arrive. It is expected that over time, it will be possible to persuade the Azerbaijani side to pull back its forces from the specified villages and the Sev Lake area.

Our interlocutors have not ruled out the signing of a document regarding the deployment of Russian border guards. What specific solutions the sides will arrive at will soon become clear.

It is noteworthy that after the 44-day war in Artsakh, when the Kelbajar (Karvachar) and Lachin (Kashatagh) regions came under Azerbaijani control, the Syunik region and the southern part of the Gegharkunik region became border adjacent to Azerbaijan.