Discrepancies in Numbers on Prisoners Between Baku and Yerevan: Kommersant's Coverage on the Captive Issue

The Russian newspaper Kommersant has published an article addressing the issue of Armenian prisoners held by Azerbaijan. The article states that the return of prisoners, which Azerbaijan refuses to hand over to Armenia following last year's defeat in war, is no longer just a bilateral issue but has become an international matter.

Both the USA and the Russian Federation are attempting to influence Baku, but without any success. The issue complicates the implementation of the peace agreements reached through Moscow's efforts and hampers Russia's plans to bring Azerbaijan closer to integration associations controlled by Moscow in the post-Soviet space.

A principal issue for Armenia—the return of prisoners of war from Azerbaijan—remains unresolved. During a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Armenian Foreign Minister Ara Ayvazyan referred to this as a "critical issue" and urged that "Azerbaijan be ensured to return all prisoners of war and forcibly detained persons." "This issue must be resolved as quickly as possible, as evidenced by numerous data on continuous massive violations of international humanitarian law," Ayvazyan stated.

On May 4, ahead of the Russian minister's visit, Rustam Muradov, commander of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh, returned three captives from Azerbaijan. However, there has been no movement concerning the other detainees.

Moreover, there is a discrepancy in the figures between Baku and Yerevan regarding this issue. A source from the Armenian Foreign Ministry told Kommersant that, according to Yerevan's estimates, about 200 individuals remain in captivity. Meanwhile, Baku claims that 72 individuals are confirmed in custody, while it refuses to acknowledge 48 others.

There is no 100% information available regarding the rest of the individuals. An unnamed source within the Azerbaijani presidential administration told Kommersant that 59 individuals currently remain in Azerbaijan. According to them, these individuals are not prisoners but rather people who were apprehended after the hostilities ended.

"A ceasefire was established, and an act of capitulation by Armenia was signed. After that, these individuals entered Azerbaijan. They are saboteurs and terrorists; we treat them as such and will prosecute them. In the future, an exchange may theoretically be possible," the source stated.

Those held in Azerbaijan have already become subjects of negotiation, as both Russian and Armenian diplomats indicated in conversations with Kommersant. They mentioned that Azerbaijan is trying to condition the release of the prisoners on the fulfillment of its demands, typically related to territorial issues.

It was reported that the Azerbaijani side raised the matter of transferring the control of the Shushi-Karmir Shuka road back to its jurisdiction; the road is currently under the control of Russian peacekeepers and Armenian military forces. Control over this road would greatly facilitate Azerbaijan's access to Shushi.

According to sources from Kommersant, Baku has also raised issues regarding certain villages coming under its control in exchange for the release of prisoners of war.

Armenia hopes that Moscow will assist in resolving the issue of prisoners of war. "This is a matter of the credibility of the guarantor of the peace declaration. We hope that our ally and Azerbaijan's strategic partner will convince them to fulfill it and be capable of negotiations," a senior Armenian diplomat told Kommersant.

Recently, the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group—Igor Popov from Russia, Stefan Visconti from France, and Andrew Schofer from the USA—called for the transfer of all held individuals to Yerevan. This was also echoed by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

These and other issues will be on Sergey Lavrov's agenda when he visits Baku on May 10.