Russian and German Analysts Discuss Lavrov's Visit

In recent days, Armenian and Azerbaijani media have been actively discussing Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's visit to Yerevan and Baku. Lavrov will be in Yerevan from May 5-6, and in Azerbaijan from May 10-11. According to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry, the agenda includes discussions on bilateral cooperation, regional collaboration, and coordination of foreign policies within the EEU, CSTO, and CIS.

In an interview with “168 Hours,” Russian political analyst Stanislav Tarasov stated that at first glance, the situation in terms of stability in the conflict zone has not changed since the war, with the ceasefire being maintained. However, this does not mean that there are no issues in the implementation of the statements made on November 9 and January 11, nor that Russian diplomacy is without challenges. Against this backdrop, Tarasov indicated that Lavrov's visit will be multilayered and complex.

According to the analyst, Azerbaijan, as the winning side, is in a hurry, especially considering that due to the victory, Aliyev has strengthened his position. In contrast, in Armenia, the situation is quite the opposite, leading the Armenian side to take a technical pause due to internal political developments. This uncertain domestic situation will inevitably affect trilateral cooperation, particularly hindering progress on talks regarding unblocking channels, which are continuing with virtually zero effectiveness.

“The recognition of the Genocide by Biden has contributed to the current state of Armenian-Turkish relations during this post-war phase, complicating matters, including negotiations on unblocking. I cannot predict what decisions will be made, but the complexity lies in the fact that Russia has supported the work of the OSCE Minsk Group while arguing that current discussions on the status issue will yield no results. However, it is currently apparent that geopolitical processes have altered the post-war landscape in the region for some time. Russia faces the challenge of diplomatically reintegrating itself and filling the voids perceived by the West,” Tarasov explained.

He added that Russia needs to emphasize the establishment of mutual trust, which is currently impossible amid an ongoing information war.

German analyst Alexander Rahr holds that a visit of this nature is necessary at this stage, as both the internal political climates in the conflicting countries and geopolitical developments are tense. “Though the OSCE Minsk Group may not be very effective, it will continue its work. I believe this visit is primarily aimed at strengthening Russia’s position before the negotiations, especially as the West has recently attempted to engage more actively in the process, weakening Russia’s mediating role. In the upcoming future, efforts will be made to bolster the Minsk Group, but how effective that will be remains uncertain. Nevertheless, high-level mediation can continually yield high effectiveness for resolving certain issues. If the previous co-chairs occasionally remember that they need to engage in resolution efforts, no results will materialize, leaving the resolution solely in the hands of Russian mediation. I tend to believe that Biden’s administration will do its utmost to revive and push forward the work of the OSCE Minsk Group, particularly concerning discussions on the status issue, which could be pivotal for the entire process,” the analyst concluded.