To Prevent Baku from Falling into the Lap of Dreams, It Must Carefully Listen to President Putin's Message, Yevseyev Says

There are forces within the leadership of Azerbaijan that are very interested in forcibly expelling Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh. Russian military expert and head of the Caucasus department at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Institute, Vladimir Yevseyev expressed this opinion in an interview with Sputnik Armenia.

Recently, Azerbaijani armed forces have opened fire on Stepanakert as well as Shosh and Mkhitarashen villages in Askeran region, grossly violating the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020. Notably, the fire was opened with small-caliber weapons. As a result of the gunfire, the roof of a residential house in Stepanakert was damaged. Law enforcement agencies are trying to figure out where the shots were fired from, as it is impossible to shell Stepanakert from Shushi, which is under the control of the adversary. There were no casualties as a result of the incident.

Yevseyev noted that there is still an euphoria in Baku due to military successes, which accounts for such brazen and fearless behavior. He stated, “If, God forbid, at least one Russian peacekeeper gets injured, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will have to remember the 2008 experience (referring to the conflict in Georgia). Perhaps by shelling the civilian population, Aliyev hopes that the Russian peacekeepers will not come under fire. But if escalation continues, they may also come under fire.”

According to him, if as a result of such incidents at least one Russian serviceman is injured or, even worse, killed, Moscow will respond harshly, especially since the issue of the death of the crew of the Russian helicopter shot down by Azerbaijan on November 9, 2020, remains open.

The expert believes that Russia might return to the helicopter issue and do so in a quite strict manner. “To prevent the Azerbaijani authorities from falling into the lap of dreams, they must carefully listen to Russian President Vladimir Putin's address to the Federal Assembly. It clearly states that if someone threatens Russia's national interests, they will deeply regret it. The presence of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh fully corresponds to Russia's interests,” Yevseyev emphasized.

In regard to Aliyev's threats about forcibly seizing the so-called “Zangezur Corridor,” Yevseyev stated that Baku is trying to exert pressure on the Armenian side. At the same time, he is reluctant to associate the threats regarding the capture of the Syunik region with the shelling of Stepanakert. The military expert reminded that Russian units are stationed in Goris. However, he expressed that it would be desirable to create a base there to solve the “corridor” issue altogether.

“It is evident that if Azerbaijan crosses the borders of Armenia, Russia will have every reason to fulfill its obligations to ensure the territorial integrity of the republic,” the expert said. Yevseyev believes that Aliyev seems to think that the Armenian armed forces do not pose any threat. However, he pointed out that the Azerbaijani president is clearly underestimating Armenia's potential. In any case, the Russian military presence is an insurmountable barrier for Baku on the path to forceful seizing of Armenian territory.