Expert Discusses Upcoming Punishment for Azerbaijan

Given the new realities in the region, both Azerbaijan and Turkey are trying to extract maximum benefit from the new situation. Armenia seems to have pulled back and is trying to defend itself based on its internationally recognized borders, while Russia has actively engaged and can be said to have come out alone against Turkey and Azerbaijan.

This was noted by expert Karen Hovhannisyan on his Facebook page. He specifically mentioned: “Russia's actions are aimed at maintaining its spheres of influence. If it previously did this through Armenia, today it is doing it directly. Because this is a direct process, without any mediation, Turkey has become very cautious. Turkey has also become cautious in its working agenda. If its ambitions in the South Caucasus were evident in recent months, they have sharply shifted towards the Middle East, and, why not, also Cyprus.

Russia is also well aware that Turkic-speaking alliances are primarily against the Russian Federation, aimed at weakening Russia. Therefore, it is still patiently trying to convey to Azerbaijan that the further path must pass through Russia, not Turkey. Azerbaijan may soon face a choice: either Russia or Turkey. In both cases, Azerbaijan is expecting a very complicated internal and external political life because, in both scenarios, a punishment awaits.

And what benefits should we expect? There are many benefits, but we should not expect them; rather, we should take effective steps. Even after the infamous document, we could have secured relatively favorable positions for ourselves. We are not creating problems for Azerbaijan on the international stage regarding: 1. the issue of captives, 2. the issue of the deportation of indigenous people from Artsakh, 3. the use of prohibited weapons during the war, 4. targeting and hitting humanitarian objects during the war, 5. finally, accusing Azerbaijan of war crimes.

No other country, even allied nations, will do this on our behalf. We need to be proactive, and if at that time our allied countries do not support us, then we can say that this is bad, that is bad. In short, today in our region, we have folded our hands and stepped aside, while others interested in the region have taken on the roles.