Armenia and Azerbaijan are in a state of war. How interested are other countries? New York Magazine

The complexity of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is compounded by the interests of the warring parties' stronger neighbors—Russia and Turkey—who have the capability to either de-escalate or exacerbate the conflict, as reported by New York Magazine.

"Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has supported Azerbaijan's military operations, and the Turkish government has sent around 1,500 Syrian terrorists to Azerbaijan to participate in the war, utilizing his proxy army of Syrian rebels, which he has also sent to Libya. The placement of Syrian terrorists by Turkey for a regional conflict raises concerns for Iran, which is another powerful neighbor of Azerbaijan. Iran has good relations with both of its Caucasian neighbors, especially with Azerbaijan, with which it shares historical, cultural, and religious ties. Iranian Azerbaijanis are the largest ethnic minority in Iran, and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is half Azerbaijani on his father’s side. Tehran does not wish for mercenaries from Turkey, whom it considers terrorists, to be stationed near its borders and does not want Azerbaijan to be too tightly bound to Turkish influence.

Russia has yet to intervene militarily; however, experts are concerned that Moscow may intervene on Armenia's behalf if hostilities escalate, potentially turning the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict into a direct or proxy war between Russia and NATO-member Turkey. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin have stated that Moscow will fulfill its commitments as Armenia's military ally, yet Putin attempts to present himself as a neutral mediator while advocating for a new ceasefire. Some analysts suggest that Putin might prefer for Pashinyan to fail in his leadership as Pashinyan is seen as more Western-oriented than his predecessors. Putin may seek to coerce Pashinyan into adopting a more pro-Russian stance by withholding direct military assistance when Armenia is most in need.

The OSCE Minsk Group has been responsible for resolving this conflict under the presidency of Russia, the U.S., and France since 1992. Russia is currently leading recent efforts to bring the parties back to the negotiation table. Nighttime talks in Moscow resulted in a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia that went into effect at noon on Saturday; however, Armenia and Azerbaijan accused each other of violating the ceasefire within hours. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has stated that negotiations for a stronger ceasefire are ongoing, and the countries have agreed to resume peaceful talks under the auspices of the Minsk Group.

U.S. representatives have participated in Moscow's efforts to secure a ceasefire, but U.S. leadership has notably retreated. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo only commented on the conflict after being asked about it last week, and his remarks clearly indicated that the U.S. does not intend to intervene. “We do not encourage the internationalization of this conflict. We believe that outside countries should stay out of it. We call for the cessation of hostilities. We have reached out to the leadership of both countries and urged them to do this immediately,” he said.

During previous administrations, a war involving Russia and a NATO member would have been an unrelenting concern for the State Department. President Donald Trump, who has cordial relations with Erdogan, could have attempted to call his Turkish counterpart and persuade him to halt the escalation of the conflict. However, the president is notably preoccupied with salvaging his re-election campaign and convincing Americans that he is not severely ill with COVID-19. In any case, resolving the conflict between the two countries will not garner him votes next month, so what interest does he have in the matter?

As many commentators have noted, the lack of U.S. global leadership has led to the outbreak of such conflicts and complicates peaceful resolution efforts. Over the last three years, we have seen how aggressors utilize the Trump administration's non-intervention to advance their own interests and his approach to foreign policy of ‘America First.’”