Significant Risk of Border Provocations Will Remain in the Coming Days, Tigran Abrahamyan

Today, the Minister of Defense of Azerbaijan announced that, based on their data and analysis of information, they have concluded that "Armenia is preparing for large-scale provocations and an escalation of the situation." This was stated on the Facebook page of Tigran Abrahamyan, the head of the Analytical Center 'Henaket' and former security advisor to the President of Artsakh.

Minister Hasanov has instructed to clarify combat calculations and, through the relevant organizations, to organize the gathering of reserve resources and field exits according to the established plan.

Two main conclusions can be drawn from the Azerbaijani Minister of Defense's statements. First, through the necessary informational preparation, an attempt is being made to prepare the armed forces for combat actions (the scale of which depends on various circumstances), in which case the “guilty parties” and the “grounds for the resumption of war” have already been designated. Second, considering that in recent months and in the coming months, there are ongoing gatherings of reservists in Armenia and Artsakh at various stages, the Ministry of Defense has put into circulation the idea of creating militias, and there is talk of elevating the gatherings of reservists to a qualitatively new level, Azerbaijan is attempting to create a backdrop or impression of adequate actions in response.

Indeed, during this period, Turkish-Azerbaijani forces conducted joint exercises and tactical training with the participation of various contingents of different scales, however, diplomatically, Azerbaijan faces the challenge of pre-designating Armenia as the aggressor to secure an informational advantage at the outset of any potential military provocation.

Regardless, the current situation and the statements coming from Azerbaijan suggest that the significant risk of border provocations will remain in the coming days.