Five Threats to Nikol Pashinyan's Government: Insights from a Respected Publication

Five threats to Nikol Pashinyan's government. This is the title of an article published by the renowned German news outlet Deutsche Welle. Armenia went through 2019 with a new parliament and government. DW has uncovered why more and more people are dissatisfied with the authorities and whether this heralds significant political challenges.

The publication notes: “People in Armenia love to complain. There are protests against the arrest of the former president, Robert Kocharian, who is accused of corruption and undermining the constitutional system, against the ratification of the Istanbul Convention on violence against women, and against the operation of the Amulsar gold mine. Most television channels, news websites, and newspapers willingly support criticism of the authorities.”

First Threat: The Resurgence of the Losers
Sargsyan had to resign under pressure from mass protests that erupted worldwide. The Prime Minister was the leader of the protest movement, opposition MP Nikol Pashinyan. He formed a government and received a loyal parliament after the snap elections. The former ruling party, the Republican Party, failed to overcome the five percent barrier and is content with its role as an extra-parliamentary opposition. It is now initiating a 'people's discontent' mainly in the media and social networks, claiming that Pashinyan has established a dictatorship in the country, devastated the economy, and is losing the negotiations on the Nagorno-Karabakh settlement. The Republicans are supported by the Dashnaktsutyun party, which was in coalition with them. Dozens of small parties and newly formed organizations have joined the criticism of the government, despite being far from having the strength to oppose Pashinyan.

Second Threat: A Lack of Trust in Officials
This does not prevent the current government's trust level from remaining impressive. According to a Gallup International survey, 83 percent of the residents positively assess the Prime Minister’s performance, 55 percent support the government, and 43 percent endorse parliament. Despite the high levels of support for Nikol Pashinyan and his government, the majority of the population remains skeptical towards state institutions as a whole, says David Sandukhchyan, a member of the Bar Association. According to him, not only ordinary citizens but also the Prime Minister is dissatisfied with the low efficiency of state apparatuses. He recently announced that recent achievements have occurred in contradiction to the work of state institutions, which ‘not only hinder development but also resist government initiatives.’ It appears that somewhere in Armenia, bureaucracies at the mid and lower levels are boycotting reforms, even though they are in demand by citizens and supported by the market, but are not convenient for many bureaucratic circles. This is explained by the fact that it was impossible to replace the entire bureaucratic apparatus overnight, and it continues to operate with old habits and the attention of former owners.

Third Threat: Crisis of Expectations
According to political scientist Armen Minasian, a number of factors contribute to the second scenario. One of them is the crisis of expectations. People who hoped to gain everything at once feel deceived a year and a half later. The euphoria from the new government has gradually been destroyed by the persecution of almost all former leaders.

Fourth Threat: Populism and Incompetence
Another factor is the government’s errors related to unawareness of issues, lack of proper staffing, and low management efficiency. The government, Minasian believes, is systematically unresponsive to serious problems, opting for populist measures instead of rational and well-thought-out decisions. Apart from arrests, this includes the decrease in the percentage of the cumulative pension system, tax cuts, and so on. According to him, Pashinyan now has limited opportunities to influence the ongoing crisis of expectations among the population and the processes among political opponents. He needs to focus on his team and address issues of staffing and governance efficiency.

Fifth Threat: Counter-propaganda
Political scientist Ruben Megrabyan believes that speaking about confrontation in Armenian society is nothing more than a distortion of the situation. “Such an impression is created by a generally noisy aggressive campaign against the government and, in particular, against its various actions. This propaganda does not shy away from fabrications or the deliberate distortion of facts aimed at inexperienced segments of the audience, containing elements of hybrid warfare,” the expert noted.

The publication concludes the article by stating: “The new government is getting nervous. The authorities are only reporting. Nikol Pashinyan himself almost daily explains all issues raised by his critics in a live broadcast. Previously, senior officials felt no need to provide explanations, including where their children got hundreds of millions of dollars to buy hotels, restaurant networks, companies, and television channels.”