168 Hours: Authorities Ignoring Statistical Data That Doesn’t Fit Their Narratives

168 Hours newspaper writes: A tumultuous period has begun for statisticians. They must release the data they collected regarding 2018. Our authorities will, of course, largely ignore all publications, pretending that these are old and almost outdated figures. The statistics officials will interpret this attitude as an instruction to somewhat 'improve' this year's data.

To say that this is new and unexpected would be erroneous. Just as in the past, authorities have ignored statistical data that did not align with their notions. For example, no official has ever published data on violations if they recorded an increase. This time, the public will not learn from the public or social media statements of officials that in 2018, there were 22,551 recorded cases of violations compared to 20,284 in 2017. This is only the beginning.

The public will also remain unaware that strange figures are recorded in the report on the 'Enforcement of Judicial Acts' regarding 'amounts recovered in favor of the state budget of the Republic of Armenia from property-related enforcement proceedings in criminal cases'. In 2017, the budget received 18.1 million drams, while in 2018, it only received 10.8 million drams, contrary to expectations, promises, and official statements.

In the same way, it is hard to imagine that any official representing the healthcare sector or the government will post on social media stating that there is a shortage of hospital beds. In the 2018 report, there are only 12,153 beds recorded, down from 12,457 in 2017.

This is not just about falling, decreasing, and reduced data. It is easy to imagine that authorities will not proudly announce that 'as a result of their diligent and dedicated work, and their uncompromising struggle against shadow and corruption, nominal wages have increased'. First, let’s clarify that 'nominal wage' refers to the amount of untaxed salary (meaning the published figures could be mentally adjusted down by a quarter). Let’s say and publish the figures: The official average nominal wage in 2017 was 114,557 drams. It did indeed rise in 2018, reaching 115,336 drams. An increase of 779 drams. Unscrupulous economists would remind us of inflation and start to argue that this increase has been eaten up by inflation. But we can leave that to them, the unscrupulous economists. Let’s leave it and return to the data regarding pensions.

Here, there is no increase. In 2017, the average pension was 40,634 drams, while in 2018, it slightly decreased to 40,478 drams. However, a wage increase of 779 drams and a pension decrease of 156 drams is so insignificant that ignoring it wouldn’t be considered a major omission.

On the contrary, in the report describing Armenia with numbers for 2018, there is one segment whose figures require proper analysis. In the section describing the 'Labor Market', it is indicated that in 2017, there were 219,000 unemployed (I am referring to officially registered unemployed people, not just anyone looking for work). In 2018, this officially increased to 234,000 people. According to the data from 2017, the number of employed in our country exceeded 1 million, amounting to 1,011,700 people. The official report for 2018 recorded a smaller number of employed individuals: 907,500 people.

It is clear that as a result of these indicators, the 'unemployment rate' – which is the proportion of unemployed among the economically active population – has increased. In 2017, it was 17.8 percent, while in 2018 it grew to 20.5 percent. Moreover, a higher unemployment rate than the national average was recorded in the Vayots Dzor region at 21.8 percent, Shirak region at 22.9 percent, Kotayk region at 25.5 percent, and in Yerevan it was 27.4 percent. The highest rate was recorded in Tavush region, where almost every third working-age resident is unemployed at 30.3 percent.

Finally, let me present some official data that can be interpreted in any way (I am sure that these figures will also be ignored by our officials). In 2016, about 95,800 people were looking for work in Armenia. In 2017, the number of job seekers was around 86,000, while in 2018, it was about 82,000. As a hypothesis, I propose considering that the decrease in the number of job seekers, alongside the increase in the number of unemployed, can be explained by the fact that people have become tired – tired of searching.

For more details, refer to today’s issue of the newspaper.