Is Armenia Ready for Bad Scenarios? Kocharyan on Pashinyan, Artsakh, and Russia

We present below excerpts from the text sent by Robert Kocharyan from isolation; the full material can be read on the Sputnik Armenia.am source website.

On the Armenian Political Landscape:
What is the current political landscape in Armenia? Aside from one or two technocrat ministers without political subjectivity, the government and the core of the parliamentary majority are composed of individuals funded by American grants. The authorities receive media support exclusively from pro-Western media outlets, with the leading player being the 'Liberty' radio station.

All pro-government parties, politicians, and non-governmental organizations exhibit a clear anti-Russian orientation and are generally 'dependent' on Western financing. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is also actively supported by a party known for its terrorist associations, which aggressively fights for the immediate removal of the Russian military base from Armenia. In fact, the entire politically active base supporting the Prime Minister is openly pro-Western.

And all this occurs under the government’s attempts to continue the previous foreign policy course and make periodic reverences towards Russia. On the other hand, political parties and figures that advocate for multi-faceted cooperation with Russia do not support the current authorities and trust them absolutely not. Everyone presumes that the pro-Western views of the authorities, when faced with dependence on Russian energy resources and markets, are transforming into petty pragmatism. The picture is indeed paradoxical.

How long this 'geopolitical duality' of the ruling elite will last depends solely on situational circumstances. The entire external trust resource towards the government is being squandered on negligent evasions explaining the conflict between convictions and practical actions.

As a result, Armenia exists without conceptual development programs, running on daily worries, empty slogans, and a regime of foreign policy uncertainty.

On the Contemporary Phase of the Karabakh Conflict:
What is the situation regarding the resolution of the Karabakh issue in the context of global and regional processes? Our negotiating positions have clearly weakened due to the serious mistakes of the Armenian side. The Prime Minister’s statement, 'Artsakh is Armenia, and that’s it', shifted the negotiations from the principle of the right of nations to self-determination to the level of territorial integrity of states that are not desirable for us.

The contacts between Pashinyan and Aliyev effectively nullified the important agreements reached in Vienna and St. Petersburg. The contradictory statements from the Armenian leadership and the absence of a clearly defined position on the resolution have cast doubt on the constructiveness of the Armenian side. Moreover, this perception of our position has already transcended the assessments of mediators into the public domain. The unpleasant residue left by Mnatsakanyan's interview with the BBC further contributes to Azerbaijan's threshold for resuming military actions, under the pretext of the apparent futility of negotiations and its right to restore territorial integrity.

The potential for maintaining the ceasefire has also weakened due to the evident reduction in the global community’s resources for enforcing peace amidst rising global conflicts. It should also be understood that in case of war, the scale and destructive consequences will be far heavier than what has previously been recorded. The amount of accumulated weapons and ammunition on both sides of the conflict is exceedingly large. Perhaps this realization will sober up and increase responsibility among the authorities and their Facebook supporters, who have no concept of warfare.

Is Armenia Divided into Blacks and Whites Prepare for Bad Scenarios?
The country’s security does not depend solely on the combat readiness of its armed forces or the quantity and quality of its ammunition. Public sentiment and the consensus around national issues are equally important factors. Our society has never been in the current state of contradiction and division.

The complicated relationships between the governing elites of Armenia and Artsakh, the deification of war heroes, the humiliation of battle-hardened generals, and the lack of respect for the memory of fallen soldiers are dangerous enemies of the nation’s patriotic potential. Moreover, the fact that the national defense budget is practically frozen in the face of a 20 percent increase in the adversary's military expenditures is extremely dubious and hard to characterize outside the realm of conspiracy theories and normative vocabulary.