Bagratyan on the 'Wonderful Figure' Published by Pashinyan

The indicator of economic activity is a meaningless and uninformative figure, the head of the Statistical Committee Stepan Mnatsakanyan has fabricated it to maintain additional apparatus at the expense of the budget. This was stated by former Prime Minister Hrant Bagratyan on his Facebook page, referring to the figures published by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

His post reads: "Two days ago I wrote that, according to the NSS, the pace of economic development in Armenia slowed down in July. Today, during a cabinet meeting, the Prime Minister published several macroeconomic figures. He specifically said: "We have an economic activity index of 8.1%. This is a wonderful figure." Now everyone asks me: you say things are getting worse, while the Prime Minister says it’s wonderful. Who is right? The difference between us is this:

1. If we believe the NSS, then the economic growth rate for January-July measured by the economic activity index is 6.8%. This 6.8 does not include the declining agricultural sector (-8%). This year, agricultural statistics are only considered quarterly. If we included agriculture, the figure would fluctuate within the 5.4-5.6% range.
2. Economists usually compare quarter to quarter. Monthly data is not compared with each other, especially not along the lines of the economic activity index, nor with the inconsistency in working days. In July 2019, we had 22 working days, while in July 2018 we had 21. This means that July 2019 is 5% higher than the previous year. Thus, from 8.1%, if adjusting for this one extra working day, the real figure is 3.1% if we arbitrarily accept that we can compare month to month (for quarters or half-years, the impact of differences in working days is negligible).
3. The economic activity index is a meaningless and uninformative number. The NSS has fabricated it to maintain additional apparatus at the expense of the budget. There is only one real figure—GDP, and that is quarterly. Monthly statistics can exist for prices, exports-imports, employment, etc. (this is also part of the NSS reform). By designating the NSS, the Prime Minister fell into a trap (or perhaps it was well-planned). Now he is forced to publish such meaningless figures.

Regarding Moody's, they raised it. That’s good. Not bad. From the 14th row (B1) to the 13th (Ba3). By the way, we have had higher ratings. So what? It is an imperialist rating. China is second in terms of inflow with the UN, and third for outflow. But its rating is lower than ours. Moody's is primarily a political body. They slightly raised our rating, allowing, for example, to issue eurobonds at 5.5% instead of 6%. Let’s not suddenly think about taking 1 or 1.5% loans from Asian giants.”

It should be reminded that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan stated today on his Facebook page: “The economic figures for July have turned out to be quite impressive. We have an economic activity index of 8.1%. This is a wonderful figure.”