Statistical Discrepancies: What to Expect by Year-End

During the CIS summit held in Dushanbe, a debate unfolded between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin over the figures of Armenian-Russian trade turnover. In response to Putin's question about the trade turnover between the two countries, Pashinyan stated that it reached $4 billion in 2025 and $9 billion in 2024. However, the Russian president disagreed and noted that the actual figures are 'larger.' 'Well, it may be,' Pashinyan replied.

Following this, officials and parliament members from the ruling party hurried to demonstrate that Pashinyan was not mistaken, insisting he had compared comparable figures, among other arguments. At the same time, several experts are highlighting an interesting picture: According to official data from the Armenian Statistical Committee, trade turnover between Armenia and Russia was $12 billion, 401 million, and 604.4 thousand in 2024. Thus, 2024 became a historic peak, registering nearly a twofold increase compared to 2023.

Additionally, according to data from August 2025, actual trade turnover stood at around $4.5 billion, while the same period in 2024 saw turnover at $9.2 billion. This implies that Pashinyan effectively 'shortened the year to eight months,' confusing the numbers and comparing not annual but eight-month figures.

Based on the results for 2025, Armenian-Russian trade turnover is expected to reach at least $7 billion, marking a significant decline compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, Russia remains Armenia's main trading partner, accounting for 34.8 percent of the country's total foreign trade. Experts suggest that future dynamics will depend on several factors, including regional geopolitical developments, the upcoming parliamentary elections, and Armenia's subsequent steps in external economic policy.