Pashinyan-Aliyev-Trump Meeting Marks a Fateful Political Turn for Armenia: Suren Surenyants

The Pashinyan–Aliyev–Trump trilateral meeting scheduled for August 7-8 is being presented as an initiative for "peace, prosperity, and economic cooperation." This was noted by Suren Surenyants on his Facebook page.

“However, in reality, this is not about a ‘peace treaty,’ but rather a crucial political turn for Armenia. The most critical agenda point behind the scenes, according to all signs, will be the issue of the Syunik road. This is being framed as an economic opportunity, yet its substance could become the greatest challenge to Armenia's sovereignty. Let us consider the broader context by analyzing the interests of various geopolitical players.

U.S. Objectives
Trump's personal agenda—including a pre-election trump card and the focused idea of a Nobel Prize—is already known to us. But there is also a deep-seated geopolitical issue: the U.S. seeks to eliminate Russia and Iran from the South Caucasus by strengthening its own influence through transportation and energy corridors.

The Syunik road becomes part of not only a regional but also a global strategy, a tool for isolating Iran and exerting pressure on Russia.

Interests of Azerbaijan and Turkey
The biggest beneficiaries of this process are Baku and Ankara. They are securing a Turanian corridor connecting Turkey with Central Asia via Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, which realizes Erdoğan's long-promised program of ‘integration of the Turkish world.’ Azerbaijan gains a strategic corridor without any reciprocal concessions, as the discussion is not about a classic road but a route with a special status guaranteed by international assurances.

Security Risks for Armenia
For Armenia, the dangers in this process accumulate against one another. The model of international oversight of the Syunik road (with Western monitoring) may turn into a de facto ‘special status’, laying the groundwork for future territorial disputes. Armenia finds itself at the epicenter of global interests, making it not a subject, but an object of the game. Any escalation in the U.S.-Russia-Iran triangle will have Armenia bearing the brunt of the initial blow.

Loss of security system: Azerbaijan, benefiting from this process, seeks to strengthen pressure on Armenia from different directions with new demands.

The November 9 document is being pushed out of the process
It is symbolic that all this occurs at a time when the November 9 declaration, with all its shortcomings, is effectively being pushed out of the process. That document essentially assumed reciprocity—Syunik road in exchange for the Lachin corridor, as well as minimum guarantees for the preservation of Armenian identity in Artsakh. Yet today’s model on the table in Washington represents a unilateral concession without any equivalent compensation or security mechanisms.

Domestic Contrast in Armenia
Pashinyan will try to present this document as a historic achievement and turn it into a key trump card for his re-election in 2026. On the other hand, public polarization will intensify, as the majority will not perceive such compromises as steps to ensure security. This may lead to a profound internal crisis and political shocks that weaken the state, making it more vulnerable to external influences.

Thus, the meeting in Washington is not only a negotiation but also the center of a strategic game where the future of Armenia’s statehood is being decided. A wrong decision could turn into a judgment for generations,” the political scientist wrote.