Cold November: Surenyan on Expected Weather

The Hydro-Meteorological and Monitoring Center reports: The average monthly temperature for November is expected to be 1-2 degrees lower than normal across the entire territory of the Republic, with precipitation amounts close to the norm.

"We are expecting a relatively cold November with adequate precipitation," stated Gagik Surenyan, the deputy director of the center, on his Facebook page.

The message from the Hydro-Meteorological and Monitoring Center regarding weather forecasts states: "In November 2024, the solar altitude will continue to decrease from the horizon, thereby reducing daylight duration. The duration of sunshine during the month is expected to be between 120-160 hours. The number of clear days is significantly decreasing, with only about 5-6 days being clear. The average monthly temperature across the Republic in November is projected to be around 1.5°C. The first ten days of November will be relatively warm (with an average temperature of 4°C), while the average temperature for the third ten-day period in the Republic will be negative, at -0.5°C. During the last days of the second ten-day period, temperatures in some mountainous regions will drop below 0°C, marking the onset of winter.

The highest average monthly temperature is recorded in Meghri, at 9.5°C, and it is also higher in the northeastern regions (Bagratashen 6.9°C, Ijevan 7.1°C), and in the Ararat Valley (Yerevan 6.5°C, Armavir 5.6°C). Maximum temperatures in those areas could reach 22-30°C. The average monthly temperature is lower in regions above 2000 meters (Ashotsk -1.8°C), while minimum temperatures in some mountainous areas can reach -27°C (Ashotsk, Gavar, Sisian), -17°C in Armavir, and -7°C in Meghri. The absolute minimum temperature in Yerevan was recorded in 1948 at -17°C. Historically, warmer weather has been observed in November in 1966, 1970, and 1998, whereas lower temperatures were recorded in 1973, 1978, 1996, and 2001, with valley regions reaching -6 to -12°C.

The amount of precipitation in November is less compared to October, totaling 41mm. Higher amounts of precipitation are expected in mountainous regions at around 60mm, while the Ararat Valley may see only 20-30mm. Noteworthy wet years include 1973, 1986, and 1994, where precipitation amounts exceeded the norm by 2-3 times. However, there have also been dry years such as 1996 and 2010 when no precipitation was recorded in November. Stable snow cover is expected to develop in the high mountainous regions of the Republic around mid-month (with snow layer height reaching 5-10 cm), and in some years, snow cover may form at the beginning of the month.

In November, a high-pressure area forms across the Republic, establishing a winter wind regime characterized by calm weather. Only in high mountainous areas and passes does wind speed increase, averaging 5-7 m/s, with maximum speeds reaching 20-30 m/s (in Pushkin and Sisian passes). The number of foggy days significantly increases, particularly in mountainous passes, with up to 25 foggy days expected. Fog is most commonly observed during morning hours.