When Will the War in Ukraine End? IMF

The International Monetary Fund has postponed its forecast for the end of intense military operations by one year. They explained that the war is expected to continue throughout the next year.

The IMF's 2024 forecast indicates that the war in 2025 will exert pressure on spending, opening up additional funding needs. In the updated baseline scenario, the war is expected to end in the last quarter of 2025, which will have a strong inhibiting effect; however, Ukraine is likely to maintain moderate economic growth, according to the IMF.

They also noted that the war with Russia in Ukraine continues to bring about increasing economic, social, and humanitarian damages. The document also states that without grants, the state budget deficit will rise to 24.5% in 2024, and to 20% in 2025. Furthermore, the IMF forecasts a significant electricity deficit in winter of 3-4 gigawatts. Risks of decline are prevailing as missile strikes continue.