What Devastation Could Occur in Istanbul in the Event of a Strong Earthquake: Turkey Evaluates Risks

Turkey's Minister of Urban Development, Murat Kurum, has stated that a potential strong earthquake in Istanbul could cause enormous damage, as 1.5 million buildings are not seismically safe. During an earthquake, more than half of them, around 600,000, would collapse. “We have completed the risk assessment process in 39 districts of Istanbul and concluded that one-fifth of the residential stock, or about 1.5 million buildings, does not meet seismic safety requirements. In the event of a possible earthquake, they would collapse within the first seconds,” Kurum was quoted as saying by Yeni Şafak.

The Turkish official also mentioned that 2.5 million residents of Istanbul, which has a population of 17 million, currently live under serious threat. It should be noted that seismologists have assessed the probability of a strong earthquake occurring in Istanbul at any moment to be very high, between 47% and 60%. According to multiple forecasts, if tectonic plates shift in the region of Kumburgaz in the Sea of Marmara, the earthquake's magnitude could reach 7.2. If it occurs around the Princes' Islands, it’s predicted to have a magnitude of 7. If the plate movements happen simultaneously, the earthquake might strike with a magnitude of 7.5.

On August 17, 1999, a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred in the Istanbul area at the junction of the Anatolian and Eurasian tectonic plates, reportedly killing 17,200 people, while unofficial figures suggest the death toll was nearly 40,000, with another 45,000 injured. In February 2023, a devastating earthquake in southeastern Turkey resulted in the deaths of over 50,000 residents.