Azerbaijan Forms New Alliance: Armenia Must Be Ready for Risks

Ilham Aliyev, during an energy forum held in Baku, announced that Azerbaijan is establishing a fund to support small island nations. According to him, while climate issues are pressing for Azerbaijan, they pose an existential problem for these island nations. Through this initiative, Baku is essentially 'legitimizing' or 'formalizing' perhaps its actions against France in New Caledonia. It appears that this context was the basis for the statement made by the French Minister of the Interior, who claimed that Azerbaijan is inciting and supporting the rebellion in New Caledonia.

However, Azerbaijan's initiative should not just be viewed in this context. Aliyev is seemingly playing a broader game, and Armenia needs to consider the situation with a wider lens to understand potential challenges that may arise or which Azerbaijan is 'shaking up.' Through the establishment of this fund for small island states, Ilham Aliyev is likely also trying to form a so-called 'climate alliance,' which will be a tool of Azerbaijan's politics after Cop29, set to take place in Baku this November.

In the formation of this 'climate alliance,' there is little doubt that Armenia will also be a target. Moreover, this alliance is interesting for Azerbaijan primarily for this consideration. The informational and propaganda assaults regarding Azerbaijan's 'climate concerns' over Armenia are not new. Recall that months ago, several so-called environmental NGOs from Azerbaijan wrote a letter to the Armenian Prime Minister, supposedly addressing the risks posed by Armenia's mining industry to the region.

Azerbaijan had conditioned similar 'explanations' on its audacious gunfire, compelling Yerevan not to build a metallurgical plant in the border area of Yeraskh. These so-called environmentalists have also been a weapon for Baku against Artsakh, initiating operations of blockade and ethnic cleansing in Artsakh. Azerbaijan will not only not stop but will consider the upcoming Climate Summit as a springboard to intensify its attacks and assaults against Armenia, also gathering indirect support resources through the initiative of the small states' support fund.