It’s Time to Take Bold Steps and Provide Significant Support to Armenia: Report

A high-level group led by former Danish Prime Minister and former Secretary General of NATO Anders Fogh Rasmussen has prepared a report under the 'Network of Friends of Armenia'. The group includes former prime ministers, parliamentarians, and diplomats, and addresses the relationship between Armenia and the European Union, the need for further strengthening of these relations, Armenia's ultimate accession to the organization, as well as the situation in the South Caucasus and the threats facing Armenia.

According to the report, the authors emphasize the steps and actions that the European Union should undertake, considering the existing challenges and threats faced by Armenia. The authors believe that now is the time to take bold steps and provide substantial support to the Republic of Armenia.

The report notes that the European Union has previously been reluctant to engage in security cooperation with Armenia due to a desire to maintain a mediating role. However, Azerbaijan's policies toward Armenia have shown that Baku is not overly interested in negotiating the resolution of these issues. On the contrary, the attack on Nagorno-Karabakh only reinforces the notion that it may once again resort to military options. Therefore, the EU must recalibrate its involvement in the region to enhance Armenia's resilience and prevent another war instead of merely mediating.

This necessitates strengthening cooperation in the security sector between the European Union and Armenia in both the short and long term. The co-authors emphasize that the EU should offer Armenia a gradual yet clear roadmap toward enhanced relations, which includes offering Armenia EU candidate status. Such an offer should be supported by genuine, substantive assistance.

The report outlined that Armenia finds itself in a very unstable security environment, indicating that Azerbaijan continues to pose a threat and signals preparedness for an attack against Armenia. It recalls that as a result of Azerbaijan's attacks in 2021 and 2022, around 200 square kilometers of Armenian sovereign territory is under occupation, representing a direct threat to the sovereignty of the Republic of Armenia. Regarding the statements of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, the report notes that Baku is attempting to create an informational backdrop for further attacks against Yerevan.

President Aliyev's threats directed at the Armenian capital, Yerevan, are also highlighted in the report, where Azerbaijan does not conceal its aspirations. At the same time, it is noted that Azerbaijan continues to demand a land corridor through Armenian territory, threatening military action to occupy Armenia's Syunik province if such a corridor is not provided.

The authors emphasize that Turkey may also play a role, as it remains closely linked to Azerbaijan, refusing to open its borders with Armenia while exerting pressure on it. Nonetheless, the report acknowledges the importance of Turkey's role in the region and discusses the necessity of elevating relations with Armenia to a higher level.

Considering all of the aforementioned factors, the report stresses the need to increase military assistance from EU member states, which would be a crucial step for Armenia to enhance its defensive capabilities and withstand Azerbaijani attacks. This includes joint exercises and maneuvers as well as strengthening military relations with European countries. This action would also send a significant signal to Baku and Ankara.

In this context, the co-authors of the report underscore the importance of reforming and modernizing the Armenian armed forces, adding that Armenia also needs contemporary Western military technology. Referring to Armenia’s membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the authors note that it holds little value for Armenia regarding security, as it has failed to meet its obligations after Azerbaijan’s assaults, resulting in Armenia effectively freezing its membership in an effort to diversify its security mechanisms.

Additionally, the report mentions that cautious and direct dialogue with Turkey could play an important role for Armenia, as well as the need to normalize relations and open the Armenian-Turkish border.