Global Population to Begin Decline in Coming Decades, Reports Say

The global population is expected to begin decreasing in the coming decades for the first time since the 14th-century plague known as the 'Black Death,' due to a sharp decline in birth rates, reports the Telegraph, citing a global fertility study published in The Lancet. This information was relayed by RIA Novosti.

The newspaper reminds us that the population of the Earth dropped from 400 million to 350 million due to the 14th-century plague, with Europe’s population decreasing by nearly one-third. This marked the only period in history when a decrease in the planet's population was recorded.

“The world population is expected to decline for the first time since the 'Black Death,' due to a dramatic fall in birth rates,” the newspaper states.

It notes that in order to ensure population growth, the fertility rate must be 2.1 children per woman. In 2021, the global fertility rate was 2.23. However, the authors of the article in The Lancet highlight a persistent trend of declining value; the global fertility rate was 4.84 in 1950 and is projected to be 1.83 by 2050 and 1.59 by 2100.

According to The Lancet, the leading countries in terms of birth rates in 2021 were Chad, Niger, and Somalia, with rates of 6.99, 6.97, and 6.54 respectively. In contrast, the birth rates for Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States in 2021 stood at 1.48, 1.49, and 1.64 respectively. Meanwhile, it is forecasted that Russia's birth rate will decline to 1.33 by 2050 and to 1.21 by 2100.

Melinda Mills, director of the Department of Demographic Sciences at the University of Oxford, told the newspaper that given the trends of population decline and aging, a 'reconfiguration' of key elements of society will be necessary.

“Starting from food security... to the very infrastructure of countries. The structure of the population affects infrastructure components such as schools, housing, transportation, healthcare, and pensions,” Mills stated.

One of the co-authors of the study, Natalia Bhattacharji, a senior researcher at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington, warns of the emergence of 'competition for migrants' due to the declining population.

“The global recognition of migration-related issues... will become increasingly important in the conditions where there is fierce competition for migrants to sustain economic growth,” Bhattacharji’s remarks are quoted in the Lancet article's annotation.