What to Expect from the 2024 US Presidential Elections

The Russian service of "Voice of America" spoke with Alan Lichtman, a professor at American University, and Matthew Schmidt, a professor at the University of New Haven, about what to expect from the 2024 presidential elections and which processes to pay attention to. This information comes from "Voice of America".

January will have a significant impact on the balance of power among candidates vying for the US presidency. The first month of the new year will see intra-party elections, or primaries, in Iowa and New Hampshire. For Republican candidates, these elections signify a struggle to remain in the race. In the case of Democrats, the situation is less dramatic, but a decline in President Joe Biden's ratings has been recorded.

Experts emphasize that it is still too early to draw conclusions. According to Professor Matthew Schmidt, there is a high probability that only two of the seven Republican candidates will remain on the list by the end of January. All of them must pass through the intra-party elections in Iowa, which are scheduled for January 15. The next stage is the New Hampshire primaries on January 23.

According to experts, at this stage, it is not so much about the votes as it is about donations, and Donald Trump is noted as the likely winner of the Republican primaries. "However, predicting the results is very difficult since when it comes to primaries, voters must physically come out and vote, which requires effort. Among the candidates who are likely to drop out of the presidential race are Ron DeSantis, who was once Trump’s main rival, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who opposes Trump but has apparently failed to win the hearts of Republicans. Nikki Haley's chances are also low. Trump continues to maintain his lead," says Professor Alan Lichtman.

According to experts, Biden faces serious challenges due to his age, along with the fact that many people in the US believe that the Democratic administration in the White House has failed to achieve significant success in solving economic problems. "If we talk about successes, then Republicans have certainly achieved success: they have poisoned the environment and portrayed everything coming from the White House as insignificant gains," says Schmidt.

About 40 years ago, Professor Lichtman developed a system that allows predictions about how likely a given candidate's victory is. The scientist notes that his invention has allowed predicting numerous victories that seemed unlikely by other experts. For instance, Ronald Reagan's victory in the 1982 elections occurred during one of the worst economic crises following the Great Depression.

Lichtman's system takes into account 13 factors related to domestic and foreign policy, including the results of previous midterm elections, who the current president and his party's opponents are, the candidates' charisma, real economic growth per capita, domestic and social challenges facing the incumbent president (mass protests, major political scandals), and foreign political and military successes and failures.

According to Alan Lichtman, it is still too early to speculate about the predictions for the 2024 presidential elections. "If the Democrats want to win, they must support Biden. One of their strengths is that their candidate is the incumbent president." Matthew Schmidt adds, "Donald Trump has the opportunity to become the president of the United States if he wins or extends the criminal cases against him. If Joe Biden does not turn the situation around by July, there is a significant risk that he will lose the elections." According to 508 different polls, Biden’s rating is currently just over 43%, while Trump's is at 45%. However, according to Lichtman, Biden should not fear a decline in the level of support, and that number can change many times; the main thing is to compel the Democratic electorate to come out to vote.

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