Three Scenarios for the Development of Events in Ukraine in 2024: Arestovich

The former advisor to the President of Ukraine, Oleksiy Arestovich, has outlined three scenarios for the development of events in the country in 2024. He shared his views in an interview with Rzeczpospolita.

In the first scenario, Arestovich predicts a "third Maidan, this time, however, armed." In this case, Russia, the USA, and China would need to agree on the cessation of hostilities in Ukraine, but this would not lead to a peaceful resolution of the conflict for Kyiv. The former advisor is confident that the ceasefire regime would be broken anyway. Additionally, wounded men would return from the war zone, confronting a harsh reality. "Local conflicts will arise," Arestovich added.

The second scenario envisions a continuation of military operations with the support of Western allies, yet the Ukrainian Armed Forces would not achieve success. Arestovich stated, "At that time, we will start throttling each other, looking for culprits."

He describes his third scenario as one where "the West suddenly comes to its senses, transferring a massive amount of weapons and other assistance to us. Then we will go on the offensive. But, to be honest, I do not see a positive scenario for Ukraine in 2024," he elaborated. He warned that such developments are more likely to fall into the realm of "fantasy." Earlier, the politician stated that the conflict could only be resolved through global negotiations between Russia and the West. He noted that such an agreement could establish new rules of the game in Europe.