Ukraine Conflict Could Be Frozen for Decades: Politico

The Biden administration is preparing for a scenario where the Ukraine conflict could be frozen for decades. This was reported today, May 18, by Politico, citing preliminary discussions held in various U.S. government agencies and the White House.

Options for a long-term freeze in military operations currently being discussed by American officials include questions about the establishment of potential borders that both Ukraine and Russia would agree not to cross.

“This is a scenario that could be more realistic in the long term, considering that neither Kyiv nor Moscow is inclined to ever accept defeat. It is also becoming increasingly likely against the backdrop of growing sentiment within the administration that the upcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive is unlikely to deliver a fatal blow to Russia,” the journalists note.

Moreover, they emphasize that a frozen conflict could also serve as a politically acceptable long-term outcome. In such a case, neither side would need to recognize any new borders. However, achieving this would require a ceasefire along established lines.

Some American officials believe that Ukraine should retain Mariupol and access to the Sea of Azov, while others place less emphasis on border placements, as long as Ukraine is secure in the future.

Journalists underline that these discussions are still in the early stages. Furthermore, the publication, referring to American officials, states that the confrontation in Ukraine will remain intense for a considerable time.