European Leaders Must Pressure Aliyev’s Government: Rasmussen's Article in Project Syndicate

Former NATO Secretary General and founder of the international political consulting organization "Rasmussen Global," Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who recently visited Armenia, published an article in the renowned periodical Project Syndicate:

Clearly violating the 2020 ceasefire agreement, Azerbaijan is provoking a humanitarian crisis in Nagorno-Karabakh and once again threatening military aggression against neighboring Armenia. As Russia cannot or does not wish to help, the European Union must play a larger role in maintaining peace and stability in the South Caucasus.

All eyes are justifiably focused on the war Russia is waging in Ukraine. But that does not excuse ignoring another crisis that is brewing at Europe’s doorstep. Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are again escalating, raising the prospect of another war.

Last week, I visited the Lachin corridor, the only road linking the ethnic Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia and the outside world. Since December, Azerbaijani forces have blocked access to the corridor under the pretext of environmental protests. This is clearly occurring with the support of Baku’s regime.

As "protesters" block both civilian and commercial traffic to Nagorno-Karabakh, Amnesty International warns that approximately 120,000 ethnic Armenian residents are deprived of essential goods and services, including life-saving medicine and healthcare.

Under the 2020 ceasefire agreement following the war in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan committed to ensuring free movement along the road in both directions. Acknowledging that Azerbaijan is violating its obligations by refusing to lift the blockade, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued a ruling on February 22, demanding that Azerbaijan take all necessary steps to comply. Yet a month has passed and nothing has changed.

Although Russian peacekeeping forces deployed along the corridor are supposed to protect the route, they have been unable to act. If Europe and the broader international community do not pressure Azerbaijan to lift the blockade, the current humanitarian crisis could turn into a humanitarian disaster.

Azerbaijan is using the blockade and other means to stifle Nagorno-Karabakh. Residents often face restrictions returning to their homes, and gas and electricity are periodically shut off without notice or explanation. It is evident that the aim is to make life as difficult as possible for the Armenian population, and there is a serious risk of imminent ethnic cleansing.

We must not turn a blind eye to what is happening. In turn, the Azerbaijani regime (and its online trolls) have continued to downplay the consequences or even the existence of the blockade. They also refuse to allow international observers to assess the situation. Therefore, the first priority for the international community should be sending a fact-finding mission to the corridor under the auspices of the UN or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).

We need to make it clear that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will face consequences if he continues to ignore the binding order from the ICJ.

The 2020 war revealed that Azerbaijan has a significant military advantage over Armenia, thanks to the weaponry it has procured from Russia, Turkey, and Israel. This fact was reiterated last September when Azerbaijan captured Armenian territory, including strategic positions above the town of Jermuk, after only two days of fighting.

Though Armenia remains a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization—a regional alliance Russia connects with five former Soviet states—no assistance was offered when it sought help after an attack on its sovereign territory. It has remained vulnerable and isolated.

To make matters worse, Azerbaijan has maintained its troops on Armenian territory and refused to return Armenian prisoners of war. With peace talks stalled, there are clear warning signs that Azerbaijan believes it can achieve more through military means than through peaceful negotiations. A new attack on Armenia cannot be ruled out in the coming months.

As Armenia's traditional security provider, Russia cannot or will not help, the European Union must play a larger role in maintaining peace and stability in the region. Both European Council President Charles Michel and French President Emmanuel Macron have recognized this and invested significant political capital into the matter.

After hostilities resumed in September, the EU sent a civilian mission to Armenia to monitor the border with Azerbaijan. But much more needs to be done. The EU mission, currently stationed only in Armenian territory, must quickly expand to monitor the entire length of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

European leaders must pressure Aliyev’s government to allow EU personnel access to Azerbaijani territory. Of course, an unarmed EU mission cannot stop military operations; however, its expanded presence will exert further pressure on Azerbaijan to choose negotiations over military confrontation.

Over the past year, the EU has built increasingly close economic ties with Azerbaijan, facilitated by the latter's rapid withdrawal from Russian gas and oil. But EU leaders must make it clear to Aliyev that he will not be allowed to act with impunity and that Europe’s short-term commercial interests will not outweigh its values or long-term interests in maintaining peace and stability in the South Caucasus.

If Azerbaijan continues to ignore its international obligations and the legitimate binding decisions of the ICJ, it must face political and economic consequences.

Armenia is a nascent democratic country in an extremely challenging neighborhood. As Russian influence declines, Europe must play a larger role in the region. This is not a form of charity. Acting now to prevent another significant conflict or even ethnic cleansing in our backyard serves everyone’s interests.