Azerbaijan Ready to Use Military Pressure to Achieve Its Objectives, U.S. Intelligence Agency

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence of the United States has released a report titled “Global Risks,” which, among various global issues, also addresses our region and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. The report notes, in particular, that “Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are likely to remain tense and occasionally unstable in the absence of a peace treaty, considering the proximity of armed forces at the interstate border, the lack of mechanisms to maintain a ceasefire, and Azerbaijan's willingness to exert military pressure to advance its objectives in negotiations with Armenia. The continued presence of armed forces along the delineated border increases the risk of armed confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, although such clashes are likely to be limited in duration and intensity.”

The report also addresses Azerbaijan's aggression against Armenia and Artsakh. It states, “Since May 2021, there have been periodic military clashes along the interstate border and around Nagorno-Karabakh. The most intense outbreak occurred in September 2022, when Azerbaijani forces launched coordinated attacks at several locations along the border, capturing some Armenian territories and resulting in the deaths of around 300 servicemen. Peace negotiations have made some progress, but the most difficult issues related to state borders and the future of Nagorno-Karabakh remain far from resolution.”