“A Very Dangerous Crisis is Unfolding Here Due to What is Happening in Ukraine,” Says Pashinyan

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan visited the German Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, where he met with representatives from political, civil society, and expert circles and participated in a discussion on the topic of “Security and Stability in the South Caucasus: Armenia’s Prospects.”

The Prime Minister began his speech by stating: “Ladies and gentlemen, I am pleased to be here today and to have the opportunity to address this distinguished audience. First of all, I would like to express my gratitude and appreciation to the Council’s Vice President, Mr. Ralf Nicke, Director Guntram Wolff, and their team for organizing this event.

“Today we live in a period when not only natural, but also geopolitical tectonic shifts occur globally. The deepening geopolitical instability, rising tensions, and unpredictability weaken the world order and the international security system, creating even greater challenges, especially for Armenia, which is a country embodying democracy in a complex region, making us more vulnerable.

“Dear attendees, we witnessed the first shoots of today’s challenges and the collapse of the European security architecture in our region back in 2020, when Azerbaijan unleashed war against Nagorno-Karabakh. Following the signing of the trilateral declaration on November 9, 2020, Azerbaijan not only did not renounce its belligerent and threatening policy but also carried out new aggression against the sovereign territories of the Republic of Armenia in May 2021, November 2021, and September 2022.

“During the latest aggression on September 13-14, 2022, Azerbaijan carried out a large-scale military attack targeting Armenia’s military and civilian infrastructures, utilizing heavy artillery, missile systems, and drones. As a result, the Armenian side suffered 225 casualties, including 3 civilians, and over 150 square kilometers of sovereign Armenian territory were occupied.

“Today, I would not like to delve into the details of the aggressions of 2020, 2021, and 2022; however, it is impossible to ignore the numerous cases of torture of captured or deceased Armenian servicemen (including female servicemen), the instances of mutilation, and other atrocities committed by the Azerbaijani armed forces. The horrifying videos that have circulated, showing Azerbaijani servicemen committing war crimes in an ISIS-style manner by executing Armenian prisoners of war, must be recognized and addressed by the international community.

“Another issue is the involvement of mercenaries from Syria by Azerbaijan. During the September 2022 aggression, when Armenia’s external security system failed to function, we requested an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council, which took place on September 15, 2022. During the meeting, the member states of the UN Security Council noted that the use of force is absolutely unacceptable, explicitly pointed out the aggressor—Azerbaijan—and emphasized the importance of adhering to the norms of international humanitarian law, also highlighting the targeting of civilian infrastructures in Armenia.

“A significant step toward de-escalating the situation was the quadrilateral meeting of President Macron, President Michel, President Aliyev, and myself on October 6, 2022, in Prague, where an agreement was reached on the deployment of a short-term EU monitoring mission along the international border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“When the mandate of this mission terminated on December 19, 2022, at Armenia's request, the EU Council decided to deploy a new, full-fledged civilian mission (EUMA) in the territory of the Republic of Armenia for a two-year period. On behalf of the Armenian government, I would like to express our gratitude to the EU and its member countries, particularly the government of the Federal Republic of Germany, for supporting our request. The mission commenced on February 20, and I have already met with the mission head, Mr. Markus Riter, who possesses significant experience in international deployments, in Yerevan. The mission will play a crucial role in ensuring security on the ground and stability in the region, as well as providing timely and reliable reports to our partners in the EU and its member states regarding the current situation.

“Dear colleagues, Azerbaijan has grossly violated the provisions of the trilateral declaration of November 9, 2020, and has been illegally blocking the Lachin corridor that connects Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia since December 12, 2022. This blockade has led to a humanitarian disaster. The 120,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh are deprived of natural gas, electricity, food, medical supplies, and other vital provisions.

“Due to the severe scarcity of food and other essential items, the authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh were forced to take desperate measures, issuing food vouchers and distributing certain food items by ration. The population has only sporadic access to electricity generated locally. Universities, schools, and kindergartens have been closed, depriving more than 30,000 students and children of their right to education.

“At the request of the Republic of Armenia, an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council was held on December 20, 2022, concerning the situation created due to the blockade of the Lachin corridor. The overwhelming majority of Security Council members made clear demands to stop the blockade of the corridor by Azerbaijan and to ensure the access of international organizations to Nagorno-Karabakh. Dozens of countries and organizations condemned the blockade of the Lachin corridor and called upon Azerbaijan to stop it. The Republic of Armenia is working to send a UN and OSCE fact-finding mission to Nagorno-Karabakh and the Lachin corridor.

“The Republic of Armenia has also filed a request at the International Court of Justice of the United Nations for provisional measures to be applied for the unblocking of the Lachin corridor, in accordance with the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (CERD). On February 22, 2023, the International Court of Justice ordered Azerbaijan to take all measures within its power to ensure the unhindered movement of people, vehicles, and cargo in both directions along the Lachin corridor.

“Unfortunately, Azerbaijan has yet to implement the ICJ’s decision, and traffic along the Lachin corridor remains disrupted. Although the supply of natural gas has been restored, the supply of electricity to Nagorno-Karabakh, which was interrupted on January 9, 2023, has still not been restored. Food supplies continue to be provided by vouchers, while people are deprived of the possibility of urgent medical assistance. Only the Red Cross and Russian peacekeepers have the opportunity to deliver a limited quantity of food and essential goods to Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as to transfer individuals in need of urgent medical intervention to hospitals in Armenia.

“Azerbaijan’s increasing aggressiveness toward Nagorno-Karabakh clarifies its intentions to carry out ethnic cleansing against Armenians. Recently, Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev stated that the Lachin corridor is open for Armenians wishing to leave Karabakh. This means that the Lachin corridor is closed to those Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Dear attendees, despite the abovementioned, the Armenian government has shown political will and is undertaking decisive steps to open a new era of peace and stability in the South Caucasus and is constructively engaged in the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiation process. The Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiation process is proceeding along three main directions: an agreement on the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the unblocking of transport communication and economic ties in the region, and security.

“Armenia has agreed to segregate the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh issue from the Armenia-Azerbaijan process, under the rationale that an international discussion mechanism will be established between Stepanakert and Baku. It is crucial for Armenia to create a guarantor mechanism aimed at addressing the security and rights issues of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, which will have international visibility and engagement.

“Without delving into details, I would like to note that humanitarian issues, such as the return of all Armenian prisoners of war and the access of international organizations to Nagorno-Karabakh, remain unresolved and are of the utmost concern to us. We strongly condemn the continuous violations of the Geneva Conventions regarding prisoners of war by Azerbaijan, as at least 33 Armenian prisoners of war have been sentenced to various terms of imprisonment on entirely fabricated charges. Azerbaijan’s refusal to return Armenian prisoners of war to their homeland constitutes yet another violation of point 8 of the trilateral declaration of November 9, 2020.

“Ladies and gentlemen, another aspect of our vision for regional peace is the normalization of relations with Turkey. We are ready to fully normalize relations with Turkey and establish diplomatic relations. We hope to completely open our mutual border, which was unilaterally closed by Turkey in the early 1990s.

“We have several small yet encouraging signs moving forward. Our special representatives from both countries agreed in July 2022 on establishing air freight transport and reopening interstate borders for citizens of third countries. In January, the ban on direct air freight transport between Turkey and Armenia was lifted, and we hope that the border will soon also be opened for citizens of third countries.

“I also met with President Erdogan in 2022 during the summit of the European Political Community in Prague, where we discussed the prospects for normalizing relations. Following the recent devastating earthquake, Armenia responded promptly. I called President Erdogan to express my condolences and offered our support. Subsequently, we sent humanitarian aid and a rescue team to the affected areas. It is crucial to note that two humanitarian convoys entered Turkey through the border bridge that has been closed for 30 years. Our rescue team returned to Armenia through the same bridge.

“The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia visited Turkey, met his counterpart, and reaffirmed our readiness to fully normalize relations. While the most recent interactions were clearly based on humanitarian grounds, we would nonetheless be pleased to see political outcomes as well.

“Dear friends, I would like to emphasize that the EU is one of our key partners on our path to democratic reforms. In this context, it is worth noting that Germany is Armenia’s leading political and economic partner, providing support aimed at development and our internal reforms.

“Continuing the theme of cooperation with the EU, I would like to inform you about a new important format for the Armenia-EU partnership agenda—the Political and Security Dialogue, which held its inaugural meeting last January in Yerevan. Discussions on a wide range of issues, including the overall regional situation and prospects for deepening our cooperation in specific areas, were not only timely but also significantly enriched the agenda of our diverse partnership with the EU. In this context, I want to emphasize that the foundation of our cooperation with the EU is democracy. As per the most recent ‘General Evaluation Index of Eastern Partnership Member Countries’, Armenia leads the ranking for ‘Democracy and Good Governance’ among the EaP member states and excels in the following five areas: anti-corruption, independent judiciary, freedom of opinion and expression, freedom of assembly and association, independent media, and democratic rights, elections, and political pluralism.

“Despite all challenges, we believe that our security architecture cannot be comprehensive without respect for human rights, the rule of law, and democracy. Democracy, for us, is a strategy. We will continue to pursue reforms aimed at strengthening the rule of law, effective governance, and combating corruption, with the goal of ensuring the welfare of our people.

“The peaceful democratic revolution of 2018, followed by the snap parliamentary elections in 2021, demonstrated that Armenia’s path to democratic development is irreversible. In this regard, the 2021 parliamentary elections were exceptional; it was the first time that elections served as a mechanism to exit a political crisis. I am referring to the internal political crisis we experienced after the 44-day war in 2020. Traditionally, elections in our country resulted in political crises from 1994 until 2018.

“However, following the democratic revolution of 2018, this page has turned, and Armenia is now an internationally recognized democratic country. Nevertheless, the recent security challenges raise serious questions: can democracy ensure security?

“Can Armenian democracy provide security? This is a question that rightly concerns the Armenian society today and a matter that must be addressed by our government. Thank you for your attention.”

Following this, the Prime Minister responded to questions from the audience regarding regional infrastructure unblocking. Pashinyan noted: “You know, it is important to mention that the same words can have different meanings in different regions. For example, when we say 'corridor' in Europe, we refer to connection, transport, etc. But in our case, the reality is different. Why? This is due to the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020, because in that statement we have only one mention of a corridor, and that is the Lachin corridor, which, according to the trilateral declaration, should be outside Azerbaijan’s control, and it is.”

“And this is agreed upon by Azerbaijan, and the President of Azerbaijan has signed the trilateral statement. Similarly, in the same statement we have a point regarding communication, which is about regional communication, transport routes, and so on. There is no other point regarding a corridor through the territory of Armenia. A very important aspect is that when the Azerbaijani president publicly stated that there is no point about the so-called corridor you mentioned, Azerbaijan itself invented this term after signing the trilateral statement, and according to the statement, and with the consent of the President of Azerbaijan, the Lachin corridor remains outside Azerbaijan’s control.

“On the other hand, we have accepted that bilaterally, not just Armenia, but Azerbaijan as well, must open all economic and communication routes. And there is no point indicating that these routes should be outside Armenian control. We have repeatedly stated that this is a red line for us. On the other hand, we have declared—there is no exaggeration here—that Armenia is ready to open all communications even tomorrow, even this evening. By the way, in Brussels, we had a trilateral meeting on December 14, 2021, where we reached a specific agreement to renovate the railway that passes through southern Armenia, which can connect Azerbaijan to Turkey, Iran, Russia. We reached an agreement that was published. There was a very important nuance in it. According to this agreement, the railway should operate under the legislation of those countries through which it passes.”

“Unfortunately, a week after that, Azerbaijan refused to sign what was already agreed upon in the presence of President of the European Council Charles Michel. So, where does the nuance lie? Saying 'Zangezur corridor' supports Azerbaijan's territorial claims against Armenia. And I would like you to consider that the same word can have different meanings in different regions, in different political circumstances. This is my answer.”

“Referring to the question of democracy in Armenia, the Prime Minister stated: “I want to emphasize that there is no internal threat directed against democracy in Armenia. I believe the elections of 2021 proved this. But, on the other hand, we have external threats directed at our democracy. And Azerbaijan’s continuous escalations, aggressive rhetoric, and hate speech are significant threats to Armenian democracy. By the way, I want to note a very important fact. After the war in 2020, for the first time, Azerbaijan invaded the sovereign territory of Armenia on May 12, 2021. And this happened just two days after I resigned from the position of Prime Minister, and early elections were coming up. This is a constitutional process; after the resignation of the Prime Minister, if a new Prime Minister is not elected, it means that snap parliamentary elections must occur. And when we announced that we were going to hold snap parliamentary elections, just two days later, Azerbaijan invaded Armenian territories.”

“This was an attempt to influence the election outcomes, destroy all democratic achievements of the Republic of Armenia, create a reverse situation, prevent elections from occurring, and reduce the legitimacy of the Armenian government. But even under these circumstances, we remained committed to democracy. We managed to conduct free and democratic elections, and this is not our assessment; this is the assessment of the international community and international observers.”

“Addressing the question regarding the situation in the region, Prime Minister Pashinyan noted: “You know, the situation in our region is becoming increasingly complex because the events and developments in Ukraine have focused the entire international attention on Ukraine. Therefore, during the crisis in Ukraine, a very dangerous crisis is unfolding here concerning Nagorno-Karabakh and the territorial integrity of Armenia. First, in May 2021, Azerbaijan invaded the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is under the responsibility of Russian peacekeepers, and thereafter we faced a major crisis in September 2022, when Azerbaijan commenced large-scale military aggression against Armenia. There are numerous factors for these developments, but the most important factor is that the entire attention of the international community was focused on or is focused on Ukraine. And this creates even greater opportunities for instability in our region.”

“Speaking about the arrival of Russians in Armenia, the Prime Minister noted that many people, particularly from the IT sector, have relocated to Armenia. “I believe this happened for certain technical reasons, as they usually get paid by Western organizations, and after the sanctions they probably could not receive their salaries and decided to move to Armenia. Perhaps they liked our country. And frankly, we are pleased with their presence, as it creates additional economic activity in our country. Incidentally, we recorded a 12.5% economic growth in 2022. Not entirely, but partially this is due to the activity of Russian emigrants.”

“I would also like to mention something that is not directly related to your question but is connected to our regional situation because representatives from Azerbaijan often claim that Armenia is a mono-ethnic country, and they present this as a very negative fact. I want to point out that we have mandates designated for national minorities in our parliament, and this is mandatory. According to our Constitution, national minorities have a mandate in our parliament. And now we have representatives from Russian, Assyrian, Kurdish, and Yezidi communities. By the way, the Yezidis are the largest national minority in our country, and now we have, I believe, four guaranteed, mandatory mandates for national minorities, and if I am not mistaken, there are no mandates for national minorities in the parliament of Azerbaijan.”

“Referring to relations with Turkey, Nikol Pashinyan stated that Armenia has never had any preconditions for establishing relations with Turkey. “And I can now say the same thing—I have no preconditions. We simply believe that we are neighbors and we should have relations. And frankly, I am not even sure whether it is right to talk about this now, but I believe that the main obstacle to the establishment of relations between Armenia and Turkey is Azerbaijan’s position, because Azerbaijan constantly urges Turkey not to establish relations with Armenia. Perhaps I should not have said this, but I want you to understand the very important nuances of this process. We are ready, even today, without any exaggeration, to open the border. By the way, we have not closed the border; it was closed by Turkey. But now we have taken a very important step. As I mentioned, our humanitarian aid reached Turkey through the border. Of course, our response and position were fully based on a humanitarian approach. But if Turkey’s decision to send humanitarian aid also has certain political implications, we would be happy about that,” emphasized Nikol Pashinyan.

“Addressing the question from the Azerbaijani representative regarding the Lachin corridor, the Prime Minister noted: “Allow me first to respond to the question raised by the representative of Azerbaijan. Let me note that the International Court of Justice recently, on February 20, rejected Azerbaijan’s request for parallel claims against Armenia regarding supposed mining activities. The International Court of Justice rejected Azerbaijan’s claim that Armenia or Nagorno-Karabakh uses the Lachin corridor for military purposes. Thus, I believe there is no need for me to respond, as the International Court of Justice has already responded. Regarding the issue of mutual recognition of territorial integrity, this has already been agreed upon. According to the outcomes of the quadrilateral meeting in Prague, there is a point stating that Azerbaijan and Armenia recognize each other’s territorial integrity, and they have agreed that the delimitation process should be based on the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991.”

“This pertains to the founding of the Commonwealth of Independent States. And that declaration states that the administrative divisions between former Soviet republics become state borders. And according to the agreement reached in Prague, the delimitation process should be based on this principle. However, if I am not mistaken, ten days after this, Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev stated that the delimitation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan should be based on historical maps. What does 'historical maps' mean when we have already reached an agreement? We have already agreed that we recognize each other’s territorial integrity, using that declaration as a basis. Furthermore, recently the President of Azerbaijan presented a new initiative called 'Western Azerbaijan.' You know what this means? It means that Armenia has no sovereign territory; the entire territory of the Republic of Armenia is, in this so-called, 'Western Azerbaijan'—while simultaneously saying that we want peace, etc. This is a very strange situation.

“This is the fundamental issue in our relations. We have agreed upon this based on the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020; we signed it. The President of Azerbaijan, I, and the President of Russia signed that document. We have reached an agreement. This was, to me, a very difficult decision for Armenia. There is a point stating that all prisoners of war and detained persons should be repatriated, but so far we have 33 prisoners of war; we have a civilian who is a representative of a charity organization, who was arrested by Azerbaijan in the Lachin corridor, and he has been sentenced to 25 years in prison. Do you know why? Because just three days ago he went live on Facebook and said something that displeased the President of Azerbaijan. And now, according to the decision of the Azerbaijani court, he is considered a 'spy, terrorist, murderer.'

“Referring to another question from an Azerbaijani representative, Nikol Pashinyan noted that in 2018, when he became the Prime Minister of Armenia, he addressed social media users in Armenia and Azerbaijan during one of the press conferences, asking them not to use the platform for hate speech, aggressive, offensive rhetoric, but rather to try to speak to each other and understand each other's positions. “But unfortunately, my initiative failed. However, I completely agree with you. We must focus on the positive future, the future of our common region. Because it is a fact that the three countries in the South Caucasus—Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan—have very strong cultural similarities. That is a fact. And we need to focus on the positives. And you are right; we are interested, perhaps Armenia is even more interested in the issue of opening regional communications, and that is why Azerbaijan is trying to, so to speak, sell this at the highest price. We must focus on the opportunities for peace and cooperation. The peace agenda is my responsibility, and I would like to receive some support from the Azerbaijani public as well.

“At the conclusion of our meeting, I will try to focus on positive aspects. My expectation from the international community is to clearly show that any provocation will receive a very harsh reaction from the international community, and it is crucial to maintain stability. I emphasize—regardless of the party, whether from Armenia or Azerbaijan—because now we have observers in the region, and there will be no need for the EU to ask which side initiated it. Now you have your own source of information.

“In general, I would like to say that our political team, the parliamentary majority has taken on the responsibility for the peace agenda, and now we have a mandate for the implementation of that peace agenda. We are focused on the realization of that mandate. And we need the support of the international community and the nations of our region, and we are ready to bear that responsibility until we achieve lasting and stable peace. And recently, I announced in our parliament and government that I have full determination to sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan, but this should not be a document resembling capitulation for Armenia. It should be a document of real and lasting peace for our region, and I am ready to bear that responsibility for the sake of peace, stability, and regional and international cooperation. This is my final summary of today’s discussion. Thank you.”