What the Arrival of EU Observers Will Bring to Armenia and Will It Affect Relations with Russia and Iran? Suren Surenyants Explains

The deployment of the EU mission to Armenia is a positive phenomenon. This was stated by political expert Suren Surenyants in an interview with Aurora News.

“Anything that can contribute to stability is beneficial, especially since it may have a certain awakening significance,” he noted.

On the other hand, Surenyants does not share euphoric approaches or excessive enthusiasm. “The mission itself is positive, as it increases international involvement and attention to our issues. However, there are three misconceptions that, if not followed, will have the opposite effect,” he explained.

He elaborated on these points: “The first is that this should not be considered a step towards a change in the foreign policy vector. In other words, just because our Western partners are sending observers does not mean that they are taking steps towards changing Armenia's political vector, especially since Russian troops continue to remain here.”

The second misconception is that the arrival of observers should not give the authorities a feeling of a 'soft pillow effect.' “We should not set aside efforts or actions towards strengthening our defense structures, as the observers do not have a mission to protect us. This means we need to lay very serious foundations for the modernization of our armed forces.”

“The third is that the arrival of the observers in no way means that the Armenian authorities should shy away from negotiations (as they are doing today), because the observation mission cannot perform a restraining role and there will be no actions to restrain Azerbaijan,” he said, adding that while the arrival of observers is good, it does not suggest that there should be a change in strategic orientation, nor should it be a neglect of the regulation process or the armed forces.

When asked whether the arrival of a new group of observers in Armenia could further exacerbate the existing crisis in Armenian-Russian relations, he remarked, “We must explain to Russia and Iran that the observation mission is not directed against them, nor is it a signal for our review of foreign policy. This step is aimed at strengthening our security component. If this is not explained or if the arrival of this mission is attempted to be used as a pretext for changing the foreign policy vector, of course, our relations will suffer with our Russian and Iranian partners.”

Speaking about Lavrov's statement regarding the Lachin corridor, which suggested that the issue is in a phase of resolution, Surenyants noted, “This means that Russia lacks sufficient capabilities, and the reason for this is the Russia-Ukraine war, which has weakened Russia's capabilities in our region. Although Western states will raise this issue, they will not exert efforts to overcome this crisis because the deeper the crisis, the more it will damage Russia's reputation and presence.”