Why is Aliyev Nervous About the Minsk Group and Satisfied with Brussels' Mediation? The Political Scientist Explores

Political scientist Stepan Danielyan writes: “The USA, Russia, Turkey, and Iran are guided by their national interests, which is natural; what is unnatural is that we do not know whose interests we are pursuing ourselves.

- Russia needs to remain in the Caucasus, and for that, the question of Artsakh must remain frozen, preventing the West from entering the South Caucasus through the Artsakh issue and then advancing into Central Asia and Northern Caucasus. This is agreed upon with Iran and Erdogan’s Turkey.

- Iran needs to ensure that the West and Israel do not enter its north, Azerbaijan, for which it has an agreement with Russia and also partial agreement with Erdogan's Turkey. At the same time, it wants to prevent Azerbaijan’s role from growing, as this poses a threat to its territorial integrity.

- Erdogan's Turkey also wants to restrain Western activity in the Caucasus, but achieving this requires a high price from Russia and Iran, and it is at our expense. We will know what post-Erdogan Turkey will look like in the coming years, as well as what geopolitical changes will occur in our region afterwards.

- The USA and Britain need a strong Azerbaijan that can serve as a platform for entering Central Asia, as well as creating disturbances in Russia based on Islam and Turkism. For this, the issue of Artsakh must be resolved definitively in favor of Azerbaijan, and the ‘question’ of Syunik must also be resolved, so that the process of Russia and Iran’s collapse can begin in the future.

When the ‘international community’ says that a final and lasting peace should be established between Azerbaijan and Armenia, this is precisely what they mean. Let us remember Britain's role in the war and Bolton's visit.

The Minsk Group is an instrument where conflicting interests have entered into contradiction. There is no longer any international law, nor is there an international community or international order—now anything is possible, as in battles without rules.

In this situation, who needs the Minsk Group, whose members are in a state of war with one another? Brussels’ mediation, at least for me, is incomprehensible; it seems more like a threat to us than an acceptable platform.

We need to prepare for a change in the situation, which has nothing to do with the Minsk Group, just as the Ukrainian Minsk Group had nothing to do with today’s war in Ukraine.

As to why Aliyev is nervous about the Minsk Group and satisfied with Brussels' mediation, this should also be clear. As long as Erdogan is around, he sees a chance to tear away as much as possible from Russia on the Artsakh issue, which was decided without Western mediation—a situation where the West's active involvement can have a cost for him in losing power. However, there is currently no such threat under Brussels' mediation.”